Canadian Large Cap Stock Picks for 2010

Previous Stock Picks include: Agrium (AGU) recommended Nov 22 ($61.13) & Dec 6 ($60.98) hit 52 week high this week of $68.47 to close at $66.40. Also Potash (POT) recommended Nov 22 ($122.79) & Dec 6 ($122.98) high this week of $130.00 to close at $125.99. CNR recommended ($57.10) Nov 15 owing to strong momentum hit a 52 week high this week of $59.14 to close at $57.70.

Precious Metal Stocks Timing & Warning included: Kinross recommended Nov 8 ($20.12), Nov 15 ($20.23) Nov 22 ($20.39) hit $23.47 last week of November to close then at $21.56. I warned last week to watch out for more declines in the Gold Sector. Kinross dropped 5.4% or $1.17 this week. Similar timing strategies and warnings were given for Agnico Eagle (AEM) highly recommended Nov 8 ($62.00) recommended Nov 15 ($63.75), Nov 22 ($65.06) hit $71.50 to close $66.47. Subsequently dropped $1.60. Other gold stocks were recommended only on Nov 22 and followed the same pattern. Barrick (ABX) recommended @ $47.00, hit 52 week high $50.53, and settled @ $45.10 has since dropped $3.20 or 7% ! Similar recommendation patterns occurred for Goldcorp (G) and Yamana (YRI). I also warned of Imagold (IMG) which hit a 52 week high of $21.68 to settle @ $19.24 and then another 9.8% this week !

Financial Stocks: Royal Bank (RY) was recommended owing to long term technical strength throughout the past month to purchase on weakness. This week it dropped to as low as $54.10. I then purchased it in several RSP accounts for $54.48-$54.49 on Wednesday and it closed at $55.29.  TD Bank also recommended on weakness dropped to as low as $64.03, I purchased it Thursday @ $65.05, it closed at $65.98.

Energy Stocks: All stocks recommended throughout the past month popped nicely, though have since retreated a small amount. Only Encana (ECA) slightly below price at which it was strongly recommended.

Dividend Paying Stocks: Throughout the past month, all of the repeatedly recommended stocks moved up since original recommendation price including: Husky Energy (HSE) up 4 % this week, Power Financial (PWF) up 6% this week, TSX Group (X) up 3%. Though not a dividend paying stock, Teck Cominco (TCK.B) was listed a strong buy Nov 15 @ $33.48, hit a 52 week high 2 weeks later @ $38.42 and closed this Friday @ $37.46.

Top Picks for 2010:  Financials including RY, TD & National Bank (NA) which got hammered after releasing disappointing earnings. The momentum of AGU, POT & CNR can’t be discounted. Watch for any opportunity to get in at lower prices. Gold stocks are looking interesting now since the battering 2 weeks ago, including ABX ($41.90), G ($42.29), & IMG ($17.36). Energy Stock Giants such as CNQ ($68.87), ECA ($30.02), NXY ($23.55), SU ($36.29) & TLM ($18.10) all look perfectly priced for strong gains by the spring of 2010.  Imperial Oil (IMO) looks well priced now ($39.15) although it’s a slow mover. Manulife (MFC) appears well priced now although might go down  further still before year end owing to tax loss selling. Thanks to the many visitors to this sight for your loyalty and interest. Happy holidays and have a great year end and 2010. Regards, Warren

 

A Wild Week Past!

 A lot of stocks popped up big during the past week only to settle down lower. Agnico Eagle (AEM) began at $65.88, crested to $71.50 and ended at $66.47. Agrium (AGU) began at $58.28, hit a new 52 week high of $63.87 and ended at $60.98. Barrick Gold (ABX) Began at $45.25, hit a 52 week high of $50.53 and ended at $45.10. Goldcorp (G) began at $45.15, hit a 52 week high of $48.37  and retreated to $44.66. Iamgold (IMG) highly rated by Investor’s Daily began at $19.68, hit a 52 week high of $21.95 and ended at $19.24.

Stocks to Watch this Week include: Royal Bank (RY) & TD, both if which ended the week lower. I still highly recommend Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Nexen (NXY) & Talisman (TLM). Both Agrium (AGU) & Potash (POT) have been red-hot. For a little less volatility with strong dividends, keep a close watch on Husky Energy (HSE), Power Financial (PWF), Sunlife (SLF), & TSX Group (X).

The Precious Metals’ Group noted above are hard to predict now with the big sell-off in gold bullion by this week’s end. It could continue.

Energy stocks noted above usually strengthen in February so it could be early yet but some of the prices look interesting now.

Financial stocks are worth a look. Royal Bank has a spectacular short through to long term technical chart.  Manulife (MFC) is looking very weak but it could make for a good entry point. Tax loss selling begins soon so be careful of stocks that have demonstrated too much weakness. Have a great week ahead.

Stock Picks for December 2009

HOT COMMODITY STOCKS: Agrium (AGU) and Potash (POT) have been on fire of late. Keep a close watch for weakness which could be a new entry point. Agrium hit a new 52 week high while Potash climbed almost 14% this past week.

In the precious metal and mining sectors, Goldcorp (G), Yamana Gold (YRI)  and Teck Cominco (TCK.B) hit new 52 week highs. Barrick Gold (ABX) has also demonstrated technical strength. A little weaker technically but possible opportunities include Agnico Eagle (AEM) and Kinross (K).

In the energy sector, Crescent Point Energy (CPG) hit a 52 week high. It also pays a 7.014% annual dividend paid monthly (it’s an ex-trust unit).  Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) @ $70.60, Nexen (NXY) which popped up and back $1.30 to close @ $26.04, and Talisman (TLM) @ $18.58 look very solid going forward. Suncor (SU) @ $38.07 also has shown god technical strength, while on the other hand, both Encana (ECA) @ $56.40 (3.03% dividend) and Husky (HSE) @ $28.15 (4.26% dividend) have shown some weakness which could make for good entry points. For Encana, the company will be split into two organizations as of November 30^th, so one can wait for the pricing outcome to move in further.

HOT FINANCIAL STOCKS: Bank of Montreal (BMO) up $2.42 this week to close @ $53.87, while Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) @ $48.73 and National Bank (NA) @ $62.61 both hit 52 week highs. The other three majors, CIBC (CM), Royal Bank (RY) and TD look very strong technically.

The insurance sector  is looking weak. Manulife (MFC) announced a stock purchase deal @ $19.00 causing it to drop over 5%. Could be a new entry point for the mid-long term. Sunlife (SU) bounced back $1.18 this week but has been looking soft (4.94% dividend). Other major financials of interest include Power Financial (PWF) @ $27.58 (5.07% dividend) and TSX (X) @ $29.75 (5.11% dividend) deserve a new look, again for mid-long term holdings.

SAFETY PLAYS: Worth reviewing include Bell Alliant Units (BA.UN) @ $27.51 (10.73% dividend) and Transcanada Pipe (TRP) @ $33.16 (4.58% dividend). I also like a few preferred shared including: Canadian Western Bank (CWB.PR.A) paying 6.81% and Brookfield Properties (BPO.PR.L) @ 6.53%, a new issue which also hit a new high this week. The other preferred shares paying a slightly higher rate than the norm include the weaker financial institutions including CIBC, Industrial Alliance, Manulife, Power Financial, and Sunlife – most of them paying above 5.9%.

OVERVIEW: The period following US Thanksgiving through to year end is usually a very strong time for stock performance. Buying quality stocks at as low and discounted a price as possible will usually yield good benefits. However, don’t be shy to take profits to lighten up for other opportunities. Have a great week, Warren.

Stock Picks For The Balance of 2009

While this is generally a blog devoted to weekly trades, there are certain recurring themes that should be noted and taken advantage of for the next few weeks. The is generally a strong period for most types of stocks except those that have shown tremendous weakness and could still fall further with end of year tax loss selling. Note the recommendations listed below:

Strong Buy Recommendations: These include Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), off $4.00 in the past three weeks. It closed Friday @ $70.19 and hit a low of $68.77 during the week. I purchased some for my M-in-Law and personal RSP’s @ $70.82 & $70.86. Talisman (TLM), off $1.12 over three weeks, closing @ $18.27. Encana (ECA), down $4.69 over three weeks to close at $58.41. Agnico Eagle (AEM), still down over $8.00 closing @ $63.75.

Buy Recommendations: I still like Nexen (NXY) and Suncor (SU) although I’d prefer to buy both at slightly lower levels. I still hold Nexen in my wife’s RSP. In the precious metals sector, watch Kinross (K) which is down over 10% in 3 weeks and Teck Cominco (TCK.B).

Hot Stocks not Picked: Canadian National Railway (CNR) has been on fire. I can’t even guess as to how high it can still go further but it hit a new 52 week high almost every day this past week. Royal Bank (RY) has shown itself to be reasonably indestructible as a stock pick. This also holds true for its 1-3-5-10-15-20 year charts !

Value Picks: These include Husky (HSE) @ $28.30 still down over $2.00 in three weeks, also offering a 4.24% dividend, Power Financial (PWF) @ $27.65 paying a 5.06% dividend and TSX Group (X) @ $28.93 paying a 5.25% dividend. I still like and am holding in RSP’s and M-in-Law’s RSP Sunlife (SLF) down over $2.50 in three weeks, closing @ $27.98, paying a 5.15% dividend, although the technical chart doesn’t look all too strong.

Watch List: Hudbay Minerals (HBM) made a major discovery recently. The stock skyrocketed and has generally shown very strong performance. Reached a high this week of $17.00 to close @ $16.00. Keep an eye for any opportunities on weakness.

Income Recommendations: Note the Current Dividends of the Following: Bell Alliant units (BA.UN)  10.83%, Bank of Montreal (BMO) 5.44%, BCE 5.97%, CIBC (CM) 5.29%, Crescent Point Energy (CPG) which made a major recent acquisition @ 7.09%, Manitoba Tel (MBT) 8.29%, Telus (T) 5.79%.

As mentioned, the next six weeks are usually a very strong period for the market. Keep an open mind towards any weakness in stocks that have performed well for opportunities. It’s a good time to closely watch the market. Good luck, Warren.

Stock Picks for the Week Ahead

Stock Picks from the Weeks Past: Most recent blog (2 weeks ago) noted to watch the overall market trend for any indications to re-enter. The last week of October was quite dismal. Two areas of concentration to closely monitor were (and still are) Energy Giants and Insurance Companies. The Energy industry took a nice hit the last week of October (some also this past week) offering some nice entry points. These stocks include Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Nexen (NXY) & Talisman (TLM). Manulife (MFC) & Sunlife (SLF) also took some major hits this past week. Previous blog also recommended/noted that I also took profits in the large Agriculture stocks, Potash (POT) and/or Agrium (AGU) after a nice run up from previous weakness.

Stock Trades Completed in the Past Two Weeks:  In my RSP and M-in-Law’s RSP accounts, I sold NXY @ $24.91 (cost $24.64) and $24.91 (cost $24.46). Stock was held between 5 and 8 trading days. Nexen had also slipped to $22.88 this week, closing at $25.17.

New Positions Taken in the Past Two Weeks:  I purchased CNQ on weakness in both my wife’s and M-in-Law’s RSP’s for $67.10 & $67.24. Stock closed at $70.20 and had slipped to $66.51 during the week.  I also purchased more TLM in both my RSP and Cash accounts for $17.83 & $18.75 reducing my average cost price if the stock to $18.73 (RSP) and $19.41 (Cash). I’m comfortable with holding them and adding more. Stock closed @ $18.39.

Stock Pick for the Week Ahead: It appears that the market will hold this upcoming week but caution is always the overall recommendation. I would rate CNQ & TLM as strong buys on weakness. I would also rate SLF as a strong buy in small quantities. In the mining sector, Agnico Eagle (AEM) declined by over 20% last week of October and bounced back but is still $10 below its October 23^rd closing price. Assuming that precious metals continue to shine, I rate it a strong buy.  New stocks of interest based upon recent weakness include: Husky Energy (HSE) @ $28.19 which also offers a 4.26% dividend, Suncor (SU) down almost $3 in 2 weeks, and TSX Group (X) down $5.64 (16.5%)in 2 weeks, also offering a 5.33% dividend. The stock will probably decline Monday as it becomes ex-dividend as of Tuesday’s market open. Could be an interesting opportunity after it drops. Kinross (K) also dropped over 10% 2 weeks ago and has not come back (yet). Sunlife as noted above now pays a 5% dividend. Power Financial (PWF) also pays over 5%. Keep a close eye on opportunities and good luck ! I wish you all a successful week ahead, Warren.

 

Stock Picks of the Week Past and Ahead

Assuming a positive market trend, Last Weekend’s Blog top recommendations were Potash (POT), Agrium (AGU) and Teck Cominco (TCK.B). All three  stocks had big upwards moves during the week although the two agriculture plays backed off by Friday. I sold Potash in my M-in-Law’s RSP account @ $107.24 (purchase price $105.53). It closed the week @ $105.95. Both companies announced this past week very poor quarterly profits and future guidance although they had jumped earlier owing to speculation of a possible takeover of Potash by Australian mining giant BHP Billiton. With the weak guidance ahead, I’d recommend to take any profits and repurchase at a lower price. Longer term outlook for both is very positive. Teck Cominco made a new 52 week high this past week and its current upward momentum looks very strong.

New Positions Taken Over the Past Week include: Cash Account: I purchased small positions of Talisman (TLM) each day during the week at prices ranging from $19.24-$19.99, averaging $19.68 (Friday close $19.37). I also purchased it in my M-in-Law’s and personal RSP accounts @ $19.75 & $19.63. For my wife’s, M-in-Law’s and my personal RSP accounts, I purchased Nexen (NXY) @ $24.87 & $24.64 (Friday close $24.52). Lastly, for my M-in-Law’s RSP account I purchased a small amount of CNQ @ $75.52 ($74.43) and Crescent Point Energy @ $37.57 ($38.15).

Stock Picks for the Week Ahead: Assuming a positive market trend, I still like CNQ, NXY & TLM. The big question being what direction will the Market take in the week ahead ?  It appears that the market will open as it ended this past week (on a rather sour note). As to the performance by the week’s end, it’s very difficult to get a handle on that. I’d recommend to stay defensive and await opportunities as they open up. In the more defensive sectors, the insurance companies are looking interesting, including Manulife (MFC), Sunlife (SLF) and Great West Life (GWO). All three had very soft performance this past week. Keep a close eye on the momentum mid week and good luck. Warren.

The Week Ahead

As correctly predicted 3 weeks ago, the stock market was both volatile and negative (see Sep.27^th blog). As incorrectly predicted 2 weeks ago, the market did not suffer more of the same. However, I did recommend (1) taking positions in defensive high yielding stocks; (2) watching the big banks for any price weakness; and (3) take positions in Big Energy stocks owing to the price weakness then.

Stock Recommendations of Last Blog included: CNQ @ $68.42 – now $78.47, ECA @ $59.61 – now $64.95, NXY @ $22.47 – now $26.02, SU @ $35.35 – now $39.98, TLM @ $17.86 – now $20.08, & CPG @ $35.51 – now $37.54.

Stock Trades Completed October 5 - 9 include: Trading Account: Week of Oct. 5 – 9: Purchased more NXY @ $24.16 (lowering average cost to $24.80), and Purchased more TLM @ $18.11 (lowering average cost to $18.73). Sold TLM @ $19.26 (holding period 3 -1 5 trading days). In M-in-Law’s RSP account, I sold NXY $25.63 (cost $24.96), CNQ $76.75 (cost $74.17), ECA $64.27 (cost $62.52).

Stock Trades Completed October 12 – 16 include: Trading Account: I sold  NXY @ $25.77 (cost $24.80). In different RSP accounts, the following stocks were sold:  NXY @ $25.97 (costs $24.60 & $25.05), TLM $19.75 (costs $19.47 & $19.49), CNQ $76.62 (cost $75.00), & ECA $64.38 (cost $63.59). These positions were held for 14 – 19 trading days.

New Defensive Positions Taken Over the Past two Weeks include: For M-in-Law’s RSP I purchased small positions in the following: Canadian Western Bank Preferred “A” @ $26.85 (now at $26.75 paying a 6.78% dividend), Sunlife Preferred “B” @ $19.76 (currently at $19.69 paying 6.095%), Pengrowth Units (PGF.UN) @ $10.46 (closed at the same paying 8.03%), Vermillion Energy Units (VET.UN) @ $30.87 (closed @ 30.64 paying 7.44%) and Yellow Pages Units (YEL.UN) @ $5.61 (currently at $5.70 paying 14.04%). Both Vermillion and Pengrowth had announced new stock offerings to raise money (for purchases) and I took that as a positive sign. Crescent Point Energy (CPG) had done the same this week.

Defensive Stock Recommendations for the Week Ahead include: Vermillion, Pengrowth & Crescent Point as noted above. Epcor Power is issuing a new 5 year rate reset preferred paying 7.0%. Manitoba Tel (MBT) has was hammered two weeks ago on weak guidance ahead but it now pays a reasonably safe 8.23% dividend. Bell Alliant Units (BA.UN) pays a 10.59% dividend. Both Manulife (MFC) and in particular, Sunlife (SLF) look interesting for longer term positions. For preferred shares, Manulife, Sunlife, Industrial Alliance, Great West Life, Power Corp, Power Financial, CIBC (series L & M) and National Bank (P) all pay above 5.9%. Transcontinental’s new preferred (D) is yielding 6.84%.

Momentum Stock Recommendations: I’ve sold most of my positions waiting for which direction the market will take. However, I do note that Big Energy stocks have been on fire, including CNQ, ECA, NXY, SU & TLM. To this can be added Big Agriculture AGU & POT and Mining Giant TCK.B. I would recommend watching these closely for where they appear to be headed. Agriculture stocks look particularly interesting as they have not participated in the recent rally to the degree that the other commodity related stocks have. Good luck and remain cautious. Warren.

Another Volatile Week Ahead ?

As predicted in last weekend’s blog, this past week’s stock market performance was both volatile and negative. The week ahead should offer more of the same. Traditional October results have set in. Everyone is quoting Bear Analysts. I recommend extreme caution and wait it out for now. Take some profits off the table and lighten overall positions to take advantage of upcoming price corrections.

New Positions Taken Over the Past Week: I purchased Brookfield Properties new Preferred Share (BPO.PR.L) in my M-in-Law’s RSP account @ $25.00 which is the price that it closed at.

Potential Stock Accumulations Over the Near Future (?): (1)Defensive stocks worth considering include: Bell Atlantic Units (BA.UN) currently paying a 10.6% yield, BCE paying a 6.2% dividend, Manitoba Tel (MBT) paying a 7.81% dividend & Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP) paying a 4.66% dividend.(2) Keep a close eye on the big six Banks as they have temporarily lost their forward momentum and could be picked up shortly at some interesting price levels. (3) Big Energy Stocks undergoing corrections could also be smart choices soon including: CNQ ($68.42), ECA ($59.61), NXY ($22.47), SU ($35.35) & TLM ($17.86). I also like Crescent Point Energy (CPG @ $35.51)in the category which also yields 7.77%.

Remain cautious but open to opportunities in great stocks. Good luck, Warren.

A Big Week Ahead ?

Completed Trades over the Past Two Weeks: September 14: Purchased NXY $24.02, CNQ $70.38, Sold September 15 NXY $25.45, CNQ $73.03. Cash Account.

New Positions Taken Over the Past Two Weeks: Cash Account between Sep. 17-24. (1) Purchased TLM @ $18.55, $19.06 & $19.26 (Avg. $18.96). Closed Friday @ $18.20. (2) Purchased NXY between $24.62 - $25.43 (Avg. $24.96). Closed Friday @ $24.56. Purchased in personal/wife’s RSP’s between Sep. 16 – 23: NXY ($24.60 & $25.05), TLM ($19.47 & $19.49), ECA ($63.59 closed Friday $60.80), & CNQ ($75.00 closed Friday $72.51). Purchased in M-in-Law’s account between Sep. 14 – 24: ECA ($62.52), TLM ($18.96), NXY ($24.96), CNQ ($74.17).

Longer Term Positions Taken Over the Past Two Weeks: For M-in-Law’s RSP account not designed for short term trading, the following positions were added for income and security between Sep 8 – 18: BCE $27.11 (+ $0.405 ex-div) closed $26.10, National Bank (NA) $59.98 (+ $0.62 ex-div) closed $59.21, Manitoba Tel (MBT) $33.08 (+ $0.65 ex-div) closed $32.65, CIBC (CM) $65.95 (+ $0.87 ex-div) closed $65.31, MFC.PR.D $27.85 closed $28.00, CM.PR.M $28.07 (+ $0.403125 ex-div) closed $27.63, RY.PR.R $27.82 closed $27.96, & Bell Atlantic Units (BA.UN) $26.71 closed $27.36 (+$0.24 ex-div). Bell Atlantic, a reasonably safe trust unit currently delivers a 10.966% annual dividend distributed monthly.

Preferred Share Commentary: I’d like to thank a reader of this blog, Mr. James I. Hymas of Hymas Inv. Mgmt, for clarifying some errors I had printed in earlier blogs. Preferred shares: BMO.PR.L, RY.PR.D, SLF.PR.A & B, will not reset at the later indicated date but will be redeemed. Thank you James for the clarification (I had read the Globe & Mail’s rate reset/redemption date listing incorrectly).

New Preferred Listings: Great West Lifeco 5.65% Perpetual & Transcontinental 5 year rate reset 6.75%, both settling around Oct. 2, TransCanada 4.60% 5 year rate reset settling this week, and Brookfield Properties (BPO.PR.L) 5 year rate reset 6.75% now trading. As TransCanada’s regular common shares (TRP) are considered very safe (& recently highly recommended by both experts on BNN’s Market Call and Jim Cramer of CNBC’s Mad Money) and offer a 4.5% dividend, the upcoming preferred doesn’t offer tremendous upside. Provincial Government Bonds offer a yield very close to this rate (see below). I like the Brookfield Properties issue.

Bonds, etc: Just issued: Province of Alberta 4.0% Dec 1, 2019, yield to maturity: 4.098% semi-annual – 4.14% annual. Province of PEI 4.25% Sep 24, 2019, yield to maturity: 4.26% semi-annual - 4.31% annual. Compare a 4.31% government debt guarantee to a 4.6% good quality preferred share…Also expected shortly, Russel Metals (RUS) 7.75% Convertible Debenture.

The Week Ahead: Could be a volatile and negative week ahead. None the less, certain stocks worth accumulating cautiously on weakness include: CNQ, AEM, AGU, Crescent Point Energy (CPG), ECA, TLM, & TCK.B. Top pick is TLM. Next are AGU, CPG & CNQ. For a mid-term pick, I like RIM which got pummeled this week. Safer positions that look interesting include: BCE, NA, MFC, & IGM. Royal Bank (RY) though constantly flirting with or making new 52 week highs, has displayed a very solid performance recently worth recognizing. Three stocks receiving a lot of “professional” attention of late include: CPG, Osisko Mining (OSK) & SXC Health Solution Corp (SXC). Watch their price movements. Good luck, Warren.

Momentum Trades for the Week Ahead

Top 5 Picks of Last Weekend include: CNQ $63.51 - $70.21 (+10.55%/week), TLM $17.53 - $19.16 (+9.30%), NXY $22.20 - $24.11 (+8.60%), Friday High $24.83, TCK.B $26.50 - $28.36 (+7.02%) Friday High $28.90, & RIM $84.40 - $85.70. Pretty good week.

Long Term Value Picks of Last Weekend: (Not Momentum) AGU $53.89–54.15 (High $55.62), CNR $53.90–54.07 ($54.50), POT $97.18-96.85 ($100.50),

RY $56.40-56.16 ($56.92). Value on Weakness: MFC $21.57-21.49 ($22.04) Weekly Low: $21.02.

Trades Completed This Past Week Include: Sold CNQ @ $67.85 (cost $63.15) & $67.58 (cost $62.85) in RSP and M-in-Law’s RSP. Also to receive $0.105 dividend. Holding period 7 trading days each. Sold NXY @ $23.76 (cost $21.56) M-i-L RSP. Holding period 7 & 9 T-days. Dividend $0.05; $23.81 (cost $21.77) Wife’s RSP. Holding period 7 T-days; $23.82 (cost $22.50) my RSP, held 10 T-days; & $23.87 (average cost $21.88) Cash Account. Purchased between July 21 – Sep.1. Ditto on the dividends. Sold TCK.B @ $28.51 (cost $27.14) M-i-L RSP, held 7 & 9 T-days. Sold SLF @ $30.13 + $0.36 div., (cost $33.16 – i.e. at a loss) in my Cash Account. Held since Aug. 6^th. A small position which I wanted to clean up and match with the NXY gain. As I was unavailable for trading on Friday, these trades were (unfortunately) made on Thursday prior to the larger run up of Friday AM.

Momentum Trades for the Week Ahead: The energy sector is hot ! Encana’s announcement of re-visiting the idea of a company split into two entities also added some fuel to fire. The stock was up over 13% this week. I’ll predict a volatile week ahead in the energy sector, with sharp movements potentially in either direction that could result on some big short term profits.

Primary Stocks to watch closely are: CNQ, ECA, NXY &; TLM. In the mining sector, keep an eye on TCK.B &; Agnico Eagle (AEM).

Secondary Stocks to watch this week are: Suncor (SU), Goldcorp (G) & Kinross (K).

Keep a close watch. There could be some big momentum swings following last week. Good luck, Warren.

The Trading Week Ahead

Fortune Magazine’s August 31^st issue listed the 100 fasting growing companies worldwide, provided they were listed on a major US exchange, filed quarterly reports with the SEC, market cap over $250 million, stock price over $5 and a minimum 20% annual growth over the past 3 years. The top Canadian companies listed and their rankings were: RIM (1), Potash (10), Open Text (15) & Enbridge (99).

This weekend’s Barron’s surveyed 10 leading market strategists, 5 of whom believe the S&P 500 will end higher this year and 5 lower. Each was asked to pick the sectors they favored or preferred to avoid. The results were as follows (favored first): Technology 8-0, Energy 7-0, Industrials 6-0, Materials 6-0, Financials 5-1, Health Care 3-4, Consumer Discretionary 1-2, Telecom 0-4, Consumer Staples 0-6, and Utilities 0-7. It would appear that these strategists have very similar likes/dislikes with a strong aversion for defensive stocks (Staples, Utilities, Telecom & Health Care).
Long term Canadian Stock Performance: Based upon a review of stock performances over the past 25, 20, 15 years (if applicable), 10, 5 & 3 years, the top performing and consistent Canadian Large Cap stocks are: 1. RIM, 2. CNQ, 3. SU, 4. RY & 5.CNR. One could include POT & AGU if the past horrific 12 months were not factored in (i.e. consistent performance).

Caution is still the Recommended Strategy: My wife’s and my combined RSP portfolios are broken down as follows: 47% Cash, 26% Energy, 27% Financials.

M-in-Law’s RSP: 51% Cash, 18% Bonds, 31% Equities of which 10% Energy, 12% Financials & 9% Materials/Mining.

Income Vehicles to Consider: Brookfield Properties is coming out this week with a 5 year rate reset preferred share paying 6.75% annually. Corporations declaring nice dividends this week include (annual dividend rates in brackets): September 10^th: BCE (5.98%), Encana (3.13%), Manitoba Tel (7.91%), and Shaw Comm.B (4.42%). Others occurring shortly include: CIBC (5.59%), National Bank (4.13%), Power Financial (4.78%), and Trans Canada Pipeline (4.69%).

Trades Completed This Past Week Include: Purchased CNQ @ $63.15 (RSP) and $62.85 (M-in-Law’s RSP) with a $0.105 dividend declared for the close Monday. Also purchased NXY @ $21.77 (Wife’s RSP), $21.41 & $21.73 (M-in-Law) averaging overall cost price to $21.56, and $21.84 & $20.86 (Cash Account) averaging overall cost price to $21.83. NXY is also ex-dividend this weekend of $0.05. CNQ closed Friday @ $63.51, NXY @ $22.20.

The Week Ahead: I still like the short, medium and long term prospects for Energy, Materials and Technology. Buy on dips: CNQ, TLM, NXY, TCK.B, & RIM. Based upon crunching the 25 to 3 (and current) year performance numbers this weekend, I’ll also recommend: RY, AGU, POT & CNR. Manulife (MFC) too looks quite cheap. Good luck and have a great week ahead. Warren.

Weekend Review

An update on some trades I made this week:

Sold Manulife (MFC) @ $23.09 (+$0.13 dividend arriving). Cost $22.44. Holding period: 11 trading days. Wife’s RSP.

Sold Manulife @ $22.62 (+ dividend). Cost $22.36. Holding period: 10 trading days. Cash account.

Purchased Nexen (NXY) @ $21.58 & Teck Cominco (TCK.B) @ $27.61. M-in-Law’s RSP.

Purchased Nexen @ $21.62. Cash Account. Current average cost price: $22.04

Purchased Nexen @ $22.50. RSP. Closing Prices: NXY $22.44, TCK.B $27.55, MFC $22.36.

Media and Financial Institution Discrepancies:

You’ll notice that different media agencies and/or financial institutions have differing data on the same corporations which leads one to consider how accurate are any of these agencies’ information. In defining Price-to-Earnings Ratios, irrespective if they take into account historical or future ones, these institutions have widely different data on numerous occasions. Who’s right ? Who knows ? Please review some examples of P/E Ratios as defined by (in order): Financial (National) Post, Globe & Mail, TD Waterhouse & Wall Street Journal. Please note that the WSJ doesn’t use decimal points.

CIBC (CM): 28.6, 29.96, 28.6, 26. RY: 22.2, 22.0, 23.38, 22. Encana (ECA): 6.9, 6.46, 6.46, 7. NXY: 13.6, 13.77, 13.6, 15.

CNR: 6.9, 13.05, 13.14, 14. Agrium (AGU): 9.5, 8.92, 8.89, 10. TCK.B: 24.4, 27.55, 22.4, 26. Goldcorp (G): 20.1, 19.18, 18.58, 21.

The Reliability of Market Analysts “Analysis’:

July 8: Canaccord Adams analyst put his target price on Crescent Point Energy (CPG) @ $31.00. Closed Friday @ $37.59.

July 10: Peters & Co analyst lowered his 12 month target (then @ $15.25) on Talisman (TLM) to $17.00. Closed Friday @ 17.90. Traded over $18.00 most of the week. While in August: UBS Inv. Research analyst raises his 12 month target on Talisman to $22.00.

In May: Edward Jones analyst put a hold on BMO, then trading @ $33.20. Closed Friday @ $52.45. All of my recommendations are for short term (1-6 week) periods to take advantage of opportunities in momentum.

Stock Pick for the Week Ahead:

Based upon a positive market, take advantage of dips in price for: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), RIM, Potash (POT) and Teck Cominco (TCK.B). Good luck and remain cautious. Keep a good portion of cash available to take advantage of short term opportunities. Warren.

Monday Morning Call

Some reviews of Preferred Shares recommended on July 30^th (16 trading days), including intra-(52) week highs:

BMO.PR.L $24.95 - $25.18 (+ $0.36 ex dividend)

RY.PR.D $19.68 - $21.31 (week high $21.89)

RY.PR.X $27.68 – $27.67

SLF.PR.A $19.00 – $21.60 (week high $21.86)

SLF.PR.B $19.25 - $21.56 (week high $21.94)

Some Trades I made this past week:

Sold TLM @ $17.37 (cost $16.93) holding period between 17 and 10 trading days

Sold CNQ @ $65.24 (cost $64.28) holding period 10 and 4 trading days

Bought NXY @ $22.16 Sold it @ $23.25 holding period 4 trading days

(All 3 trades in M-in-Law’s RSP account)

Bought more shares of NXY @ $22.20 in my Cash Account (average cost = $22.11)

Assuming a positive week on the market, I’ll continue to recommend accumulating on weakness:

CNQ, TCK.B, POT, AGU, MFC, & SLF.

Canadian banks are beginning to report this week. Should make for interesting watching. The Banks ran up a lot of recent times where the price to earnings valuations are quite lofty and don’t appear to have much mid-term upside. However, some short term momentum trades might prove fruitful. Stay cautious for any late summer declines. Have a good week, Warren.

Monday Early Morning Review

Some reviews of Preferred Shares recommended on Thursday AM July 30^th (11 trading days):

BMO.PR.L : $24.95 - $25.25 (+ 36 cents dividend to follow)

RY.PR.D : $19.68 - $20.60 (+4.7%)

RY.PR.X : $27.68 - $28.00

SLF.PR.A : $19.00 - $20.97 (+10.4% !!!)

SLF.PR.B : $19.25 - $21.19 (+10.1% !!!)

According to the National Post (Financial Post) this past weekend, 67 stocks on the TSX hit 52 week highs on Friday.

Of these 67 listings, 46 were for Preferred Shares. 3 were for I Shares, 3 Trust Units, 4 warrants/debentures/receipts, and

only 11 were for common shares.

Bond Yields: Provincial Coupon Bonds 8 -15 years out are yielding between 4.0 – 4.8%. Canadian Corporate Bonds of the same period are yielding between 4.4 – 6.7 %. Corresponding US Corporate Bonds are yielding 5.5 – 7.5%. High Yield US Corporate (“Junk”) Bonds including Ford 2012 and Hertz 2014 are yielding approximately 10%. If one has US Cash and requires income and reasonable security, it appears (currency risk notwithstanding) that the US offers better value for the risk.

The market appears to be somewhat overbought at present. When P/E ratios of major banks (e.g. RY)are approximately the same as technology firms such as RIM, it would indicate that share prices of the banks are a little high and/or those of the technology firms too low. I assume the former to be most accurate. Stay cautious and keep the powder dry for upcoming opportunities. See you later during the week. Warren.

Monday Morning Review

Some reviews of Preferred Shares recommended on Thursday AM July 30^th (6 trading days):

BMO.PR.L $24.95-25.00 (+ex dividend of $0.3625)

RY.PR.D $19.68-20.19

RY.PR.X $27.68-27.83

SLF.PR.A $19.00-20.15 (+6.05% !!!)

SLF.PR.B $19.25-20.32 (+5.56% !!!)

Common Share recommendations of Thursday AM July 30^th:

NXY $21.57-23.11 (inter-week high of $23.57)

TLM $16.27-17.09 ($17.28)

CNQ $61.75-64.58 ($68.54)

ECA $55.75-56.62 ($58.92)

SU $33.32-36.32 ($37.30)

POT $100.36-105.20 ($109.53)

AGU $48.22-53.38 ($53.95)

CNR $50.11-54.77 ($55.00)

RIM $82.37-83.61 ($86.28)

Some trades I completed this past week :

CNQ: Sold @ $66.86 (cost $62.49 over 5 & 7 trading days). Repurchased @ $64.89. M-in-Law’s RSP.

POT: Sold @ $107.55 (cost $103.58 over 3 & 8 trading days). Repurchased @ $105.53. M-in-Law’s RSP.

NXY: Sold @ $22.95 (cost $21.75 over 10 & 11 trading days). My RSP.

NXY: Sold @ $22.98 (cost $22.05 over 10 & 11 trading days). My wife’s RSP.

NXY: Sold @ $22.92 (cost $21.89 over 5,9,10, & 11 trading days). M-in-Law’s RSP.

Other recommendations and trades: In the last blog I mentioned to keep an eye on Manulife (MFC) and Sunlife (SLF) to purchase upon potential stock weakness. I never could have imagined the type of stock weakness that occurred ! Manulife cut its dividend in half and the stock suffered a 15.5% weekly drop in price. Sunlife suffered only a 9% weekly drop. I considered that to be a signal to make a small move into both stocks and purchased them in several accounts at the following prices: MFC: $23.52, 23.32, 22.44 & 22.33. SLF: $34.75, 35.29, 32.86 & 33.16. As I only made small purchases, I can buy more to reduce the overall cost in the accounts where I purchased them at the higher of prices. In particular I’ll recommend Sunlife to be bought on weakness this coming week noting that the company did not cut its dividend. Other specific recommendations based upon stock weakness continue to Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Potash (POT). I’ll try to follow up later this week with info on US corporate bonds and some peculiarities on how corporate statistics are reported by different news and investment organizations. Keep cool, stay calm and look for opportunities. Good luck, Warren.

Weekend Review: GIC's, Bonds vs. Preferred Shares

As promised, please review data comparing GIC’s, Government and Corporate Bonds and Preferred Shares:

2014 Maturity: GIC’s: London Life (3.5%), Manulife Bank (3.4%), Canada Western Bank-Canada Life-Standard Life-Desjardins (3.25%).

Gov’t Bonds: Ontario (2.82%), Quebec (3.11%), Canada (2.64%).

Strip Bonds: Nova Scotia (3.36%), Ontario (3.28%), Manitoba (3.43%).

Corp. Bonds: Bank of Montreal (3.28%), Cogeco (4.75%**), Bank of Nova Scotia (3.15%).

2015 Maturity: Gov’t Bonds: Ont (3.18%), Fin. Qbc (3.5%), Can (2.74%).

Strip Bonds: Nfld. & Lab. Hydro (3.6%), BC (3.51%), Ont (3.52%), Can (2.74%).

Corp. Bonds: GE Cap. (4.41%), CNQ (4.25%**), BMO (3.35%), Manulife (4.05%), Westcoast Egy. (4.36%*).

2016 Maturity: Gov’t Bonds: Ont (3.47%), Can (2.93%), Qbc (3.68%).

Strip Bonds: BC (3.91%), Can (3.2%), Qbc (3.94%), Ont (3.90%).

Corporate Bonds: Shaw Comm. (4.53%**), Enbridge (4.14%), Rogers (4.39%**), Loblaws (5.04%**).

2017 Maturity: Gov’t Bonds: Ont (3.72%), Can (3.12%), Qbc (3.91%).

Strip Bonds: Can (3.41%), Ont (4.08%), Hydro Qbc (4.27%), BC (4.4%).

Corp. Bonds: Gtr. Tor. Airport (4.45%), BMO (3.88%), GE Cap. (5.28%).

2018 Maturity: Gov’t Bonds: Ont (3.92%), NB (4.0%), Can (3.28%), Qbc (4.11%).

Strip Bonds: Canada (3.61%), NS (4.68%), Qbc (4.46%), Ont (4.31%).

Corp. Bonds: Alberta Energy (4.53%*), BMO (4.19%), Finning (5.34%*).

-note- Italicized yields are for lower quality bonds, the more asterisks, the lower the overall grade.

Preferred Shares: Manulife.D - rate reset 06/2014 (5.89%), Sunlife.A - perpetual (6.08%), Power Financial. K- rate reset 10/2011 (6.07%),

CIBC.M – rate reset 07/2014 (5.87%), BMO.O – rate reset 05/2014 (5.77%), RY.X – rate reset 08/2014 (5.64%).

In case of bankruptcy, preferred shares have a lesser guarantee than bonds. However, reviewing the statistics above, it appears that they offer a much better return.

Review of Thursday AM, July 30 Blog: Following the strong recommendations by Jim Cramer of CNBC’s Mad Money on Wednesday evening, both Potash and Agnico Eagle gained substantially the next day on large US volume. The “moral” of the story for me would be that whenever Jim Cramer highly touts a Canadian company where the stock is co-listed in the US, it would make sense to take advantage of that “opportunity”. He obviously commands a great deal of influence.

Review of Thursday AM stock picks (price before market opening versus Friday close): NXY ($21.57-$22.33), TLM ($16.27-$16.65), CNQ ($61.75-$64.76), ECA ($55.76-$57.78), SU ($33.32-$35.47), POT ($100.37-$100.36), AGU ($48.22-$49.51), CNR ($50.11-$52.39), RIM ($82.37-$81.82), BMO.PR.L ($24.95-$25.05), RY.PR.D ($19.68-$19.93), RY.PR.X ($27.68-$27.69), SLF.PR.A ($19.00-$19.54), SLF.PR.B ($19.20-$19.68).

I’ll stick to the same picks for now but will add that you watch for and accumulate Manulife (MFC) & Sunlife (SLF) on any weakness. Continue with summer caution and good luck. Warren.

Thursday Update Including Preferred Shares

Hot Flash…Jim Cramer of CNBC last night spent the first 6 minutes of his show “highly recommending” Potash (POT) owing to an expected massive increase in demand for 2010, excellent cash flow and net income. While he expects that the stock could go down in the short term, he recommends buying it in increments of 10% of the total desired position (“scaling in”). He also emphasized that he prefers it over Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS), SQM (a Chilean producer listed on NYSE), and his usual favourite Terra Nitrogen (TNH). He noted that the recent overselling of commodity stocks was based on a fear of China not buying because analysts were worried that copper inventories in London increased in the past two weeks…

Mr. Cramer then spent the next ten minutes interviewing the CEO of Agnico Eagle (AEM). He commended the CEO for an excellent quarter of earnings and expects a stellar second half. His last comment to the viewers was: “Great Quarter. Buy the Stock !”

As mentioned in previous update, please review the following information on high quality Canadian Preferred Shares. Note the approximate “overall” current yield of the following companies’ shares:

Premier Banks: BMO (5.8%), BNS (5.7%), RY (5.7%), TD (5.6%)

Other Financial Institutions: CM (6.1%), GWO (6.1%), IAG (6.4%), LB (6.3%), MFC (5.9%), NA (6.0%), PWF (6.1%), SLF (6.25%)

Of the top tier banks, I would recommend BMO or RY shares, in particular: (1) BMO B series 15 (BMO.PR.L) closing yesterday @ $24.95, yielding 5.8116%, a perpetual preferred (no redemption date) with a reset date of May 2013; (2) RY series AD (RY.PR.D) closing yesterday @ $19.68 yielding 5.7165%, a perpetual with a rate reset date of Feb 2012; and (3) RY series AV (RY.PR.X) closing yesterday @ $27.68 yielding 5.6449% with a rate reset date of Aug 2014.

Of the other institutions, I like SLF.PR.A & SLF.PR.B, both perpetuals yielding 6.25%, the B shares resetting Sep 2010. I’m not certain about the A shares.

Goldman Sachs announced yesterday that they expect the price of crude oil to reach $85 US before the end of this year. I’ll continue to recommend accumulating Nexen (NXY), Talisman (TLM), Canadian Natural (CNQ), Encana (ECA), Suncor (SU), Potash (POT), Agrium (AGU), CNR and RIM on weakness. I purchased more Nexen this past week @ $21.40, $21.41, $21.44, & $21.49; and Talisman @ $16.61 & $16.67. Watch carefully and stay cautious. Warren.

Weekend Update including Analytical Statistics

BNN’s Market Call & Market Call Tonight. Since June 1^st, there have been 19 shows each (38 total) focusing primarily on guests’ opinions of Large Cap Canadian Stocks. The following stocks received the most “top three guest picks”:

• TRI; 5 occasions
• AGU, BCE: 4 occasions
• CNQ, ECA, TLM, PWF: 3 occasions
• ENB, HSE, IMO, PWF, TCK.B, VT, X: 2 occasions

Since July 1st, there have been 9 shows each. The following received the most picks

• AGU (Agrium): 4 occasions
• TLM (Talisman): 2 occasions

Investor’s Business Daily, a California business paper, has a Monday special edition which provides for more detailed analysis of 2,500 stocks. The following are their overall ratings of Canadian Large Cap Stocks divided by category:

1. Oil & Gas:

• TLM (92)
• PCA (85)
• CNQ (73)
• ECA (65)
• IMO (58)
• SU (50)
• NXY (49)

2. Mining:

• IMG (94)
• CCO (91)
• YRI (85)
• TCK.B (84)
• K (83)
• AEM (67)
• G (66)
• ABX (51)

3. Financials:

• RY (92)
• TD (92)
• BNS (88)
• CM (86)
• SLF (73)
• BMO (72)
• MFC (36)
• FFH (24)

4. Agriculture:

• AGU(60)
• POT (40)

5. Miscellaneous:

• RIM (93)
• Biovail (83)
• Magna (72)
• ENB (70)
• T (67)
• CNR (66)
• TRP (58)
• Gildan (56)
• BAM (40)
• BCE (39)
• CP (38)

Some Trades I made this week include:

• Agrium (AGU) purchased @ $44.78 sold @ $46.07 – holding period 3 trading days.
• Nexen (NXY) purchased in Cash and RSP accounts (July 21 & 22) @ $22.08, $22.13 & $22.14.
• Talisman (TLM) purchased in RSP accounts (July 21 & 22) @ $16.83 & $16.97.

Assuming a positive week on the markets, I continue to recommend Nexen (NXY), Talisman (TLM), and suggest readers look carefully at Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT), Petro Canada (PCA), Canadian natural Resources (CNQ), Encana (ECA), CNR and RIM.

I’ll follow up later in the week with a review of these picks along with some analysis of Corporate Bonds and Preferred Shares that I like. Good luck and be prepared to move quickly in and take profits out. The traditional summer slump hasn’t happened yet. Regards, Warren.

Sunday's Briefing

A quick review of recent trades:

• Manulife (MFC) purchased @ $20.64 sold @ $21.81 – holding period 12 trading days.
• Petro Canada (PCA) purchased @ 42.54 sold @ $43.12 – holding period 11 trading days.
• Talisman (TLM) purchased @ $15.12 sold @ $16.89 – holding period 8 trading days.
• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) purchased @ $59.32 sold @ $62.59 – holding period 14 trading days.

A quick review of most recent recommendations: Price changes from July 7^th lows through Friday July 17^th close.

• Canadian Natural (CNQ): $54.77 - $63.01
• Nexen (NXY): $23.02 - $22.10
• Petro Canada (PCA): $38.51 - $43.27
• Suncor (SU): $30.30 - $33.95
• Talisman (TLM): $14.96 - $16.93

Recommendations for Monday:

I continue to recommend Nexen (NXY) which I did purchase on Friday for $21.94 & $21.95. I was watching BNN’s Market Call last night which featured famed veteran financial manager Veronika Hirsch of Bluemont Capital (from the Friday show). She had purchased Nexen on weakness the day prior. Watch for any weaknesses in Oil and Agriculture stocks for potential trades. Continue with “summer caution” and good luck, Warren.

Friday 10:30 AM Briefing

I’m back from vacation and wanted to update you on a few stock picks:

I had recently (past one to two weeks) purchased on weakness:

• Manulife (MFC) @ $21.17 & $21.23 for RSP’s - $20.64 for trading account.
• Currently trading @ $21.89.

• Talisman (TLM) @ $15.12 RSP’s.
• Currently trading @ $16.70.

• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) @ $59.33 for my M-in-Law’s RSP’s.
• Currently trading @ $62.91.

My current purchase on weakness recommendation is:

• Nexen (NXY) @ $21.92

The stock posted weak quarterly results this week and got hammered.

Assuming Oil stocks improve in the very near future, the stock should pop back up.

Will follow up by this weekend. Continue with caution. Regards, Warren.

Thursday update

You’ll note that this blog mostly covers Large Cap Canadian Resource Stocks. This owing to the “reasonable” security of their long term earnings. Wednesday’s Globe and Mail (Page B10) highlighted the famous strategy of Hedge Fund manager Joel Greenblatt (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/number-cruncher/a-canadianized-greenblatt-portfolio/article1210604/) adapted for Canadian stocks screening based upon two specific components:

1. Earnings Yield
2. Return on Capital %

The stocks that made this screen, not including any Income Trust Units are in order and as follows:

• Encana (ECA)
• Agrium (AGU)
• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
• Thompson Creek Metals (TCM) (not a large cap)
• Potash (POT)
• Husky Energy (HSE)
• Russel Metals (RUS) (not a large cap)
• Fairfax Financial (FFH)
• Bombardier (BBD.B)

This corresponds closely with the stocks listed in most recent blogs. While caution is the overall recommended sentiment and strategy, on weaker days, one should consider picking away at the stocks that have been recommended in past blogs. For a review of them, scroll down.

Will be out of town Saturday – Wednesday so I will not be blogging (after tomorrow) for a few days. Lots of luck, Warren.

Tuesday Update

It appears that Large Cap Oil Producer Stocks have bottomed earlier this morning and are bouncing back. This of course could be a very temporary move and these stocks should be watched carefully. Many analysts seem to think that US stocks are due for a correction from the rapid rise since the March lows. Still I do recommend considering small purchases of the Large Cap Oil Producers. Note the lows they attained this morning:

• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) $54.77
• Nexen (NXY) $23.02
• Petro Canada (PCA) $38.51
• Suncor (SU) $30.30
• Talisman (TLM) $14.96

I purchased a small amount of Talisman today for my wife’s RSPs @ $15.12.

Keep watching carefully and good luck ! Warren.

Monday Morning Release

As stated in yesterday’s Blog, assuming the market performs well this week, certain stocks look ripe for purchase but with a certain amount of caution. This owing to US corporate earnings beginning this week along with traditional summer stock weakness. As of this morning, it appears that the markets have opened on substantial weakness, particularly in the resource sectors.

This will provide for some good potential purchase on weakness opportunities. Using caution, I recommend looking at (and purchasing small amounts of) the large Canadian oil and gas producers, including:

• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
• Encana (ECA)
• Nexen (NXY)
• Petro Canada (PCA)
• Suncor (SU)
• Talisman (TLM)

I’ll follow up shortly on these picks, Warren.

Sunday's Forecast

The Week Ahead:

With July 1^st and US July 3^rd closings, market action of the previous week didn’t give much to go on. Note that the traditional saying of: “Go away in May (June) and come back in September” is quite valid so I recommend CAUTION. Don’t take large positions. Opportunities for the week ahead are based on a reasonably positive market. With US corporate quarterly profits/losses beginning this week, there could be some rough waters ahead.

Best Opportunities based upon price weakness from this past week are:

• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) @ $58.28** (I purchased this stock in my M-in-Law's RRSP account this week.)
• Petro Canada (PCA) @ $41.58* (I purchased this stock in my trading account this week.)
• Suncor (SU) @ $32.85
• Talisman (TLM) @ $15.65
• Manulife (MFC) @ $19.98* (I purchased this stock in my trading account this week.)

Second Best Opportunities are:

• Canadian National Rail (CNR) @ $48.20
• Encana (ECA) @ $55.36
• Nexen (NXY) @ $24.50

Best Opportunities based upon price strength are:

• Potash (POT) @ $113.30
• Teck.B (TCK.B) @ $19.99

Should gold move up this week, keep your eye on Agnico Eagle (AEM). Agrium (AGU) will probably go in the same direction as Potash (POT). Canadian Banks seem to have got too close to their 52 week averages even though price momentum looks terrific.

Good luck, Warren.

Weekend Preview

The Target Scenario is primarily Large Cap Canadian Stocks.
The Goal is to identify short term price trends and therefore “Opportunities”.
This past week, I purchased:

• Manulife (MFC) @ $20.64
• Petro Canada (PCA) @ $42.54

Mid-term I really like Canadian Natural Resources.

The blog will be updated minimum weekly (on the weekend for the week ahead). As this is my first active day on the blog, a revised update will follow by Sunday. Hope you enjoy, Warren.