2010 Review and Looking Forward to 2011

 

This is the last blog for 2010 so I wanted to review a few selections. Overall, in my personal portfolio, I made 35 trades to date of which 27 were successful. I’m still holding some Research in Motion (RIM) which is still under my purchase price but I’ll probably hold into the new year. I can offset purchase price by selling covered calls to pay me while I wait.

While the constant theme recommended most often is a narrow group of financial, telecom, energy, mining & agriculture stocks, I must admit I’m reasonably pleased with the majority of my repeated picks throughout the year.

Top repeated recommendations which did very well since their initial mention include: Agrium (AGU), Agnico Eagle (AEM), BCE, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Cenovus (CVE), Crescent Point Energy (CPG), Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIM), Teck Resources (TCK.B) & Telus (T).   

Other stock recommended rather infrequently  but at much lower levels include: Lululemon (LLL), Pengrowth (PGF.UN), Silver Wheaton (SLW), Transcanada (TRP), TSX (X), & Yellow pages (YLO.UN).

Income recommendations including: Preferred shares of Bombardier, Brookfield Properties, Canadian Western Bank, Manulife & Sunlife did extremely well for their category, many increasing over 10% with payouts and share price increase included.

Value Recommendations going forward: It’s early in the season but December to April are usually very strong months for the market. For value picks with strong dividends, take note of Bank of Montreal (BMO), BCE, Royal (RY), Rogers (RCI.B) & Toronto Dominion (TD). Bank of Montreal suffered a 6.06% hit this week owing to a purchase and could be picked up at a good price. Royal (RY) & TD are stellar corporations priced attractively.

Growth Recommendations going forward: Again it’s early in the season to predict but watch the following for price dips: Agrium (AGU), Agnico Eagle (AEM), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Labrador Iron Ore (LIF.UN), Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIM), Silver Wheaton (SLW), & Teck (TCK.B).

Remember:  Trust unit conversion is December 31st – Big opportunities could unfold in the mayhem (?) that follows.

To all my loyal readers and the many associated twitter members that connect to this site, I wish you a happy, healthy and successful new year.

 

 

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Opportunities Ahead

A number of large cap stocks hit new 52 week highs this past week in numerous categories: Mining, Precious Metals, Energy & Banking;  before settling back a few points by week’s end. The momentum of these stocks of late should be an indication of their potential for forward  movement in the future.
Here are my top mid-long term GROWTH picks:

Precious Metals: Agnico Eagle (AEM) & Silver Wheaton (SLW). Mining: Labrador Iron Ore Units (LIF.UN) & Teck Resources (TCK.B). Energy: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) & Cenovus (CVE). Financials: CIBC (CM) & National Bank (NA). Telecom: BCE. Other: Research in Motion (RIM).

Here are my top mid-long term VALUE picks: Based upon recent price weakness.

Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Royal (RY) & Toronto Dominion (TD). Telecom: Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T). Agriculture: Agrium (AGU) & Potash (POT)

My second tier of mid-long term picks include the following GROWTH & VALUE stocks organized alphabetically: Barrick Gold (ABX), Scotia Bank (BNS), Brookfield Properties (BPO), Canadian National Rail (CNR), Canadian Pacific (CP), Crescent Point Energy (CPG), Kinross (K), Nexen (NXY), Suncor (SU), Talisman(TLM), & TransCanada (TRP).

Recent top recommendation Research in Motion (RIM) is announcing quarterly results this Thursday. The stock often gyrates greatly during these periods. Best to have protective stops and possibly purchase inexpensive PUTS & CALLS to buffer your position. Have a great week ahead.

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Opportunities Moving Forward

Last week I incorrectly recommended to wait for a pullback before jumping back into market.  However, I did note that readers should be open to price movements to capitalize on opportunities. Irrespective, my 5 stocks recommendations for purchase increased 4.85% versus the TSX Composite 2.22% gain.

Top gainer was Teck (TCK.B) +11.41%. Sole loser was Potash (POT) -0.63%.

While many stocks recorded big gains, including Mining, Precious Metals and some Energy, other industries recorded substantial losses worth taking advantage of. These include financials, telecom and a few energy selections. This past week, I purchased on weakness Bank of Montreal (BMO) and Rogers (RCI.B). Both Royal Bank (RY) and Toronto Dominion (TD) suffered over 3% in losses and would be recommended for accumulating at these lower prices. CIBC (CM) has been very hot of late and should be picked up on price dips. A speculative stock worth watching is Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS.UN) which suffered a 7.6% price drop owing to news of shrinking dividend payouts with the trust unit conversions scheduled for January 1^st. Recntly recommended hot stock Labrador Iron Ore Units (LIF.UN) should remain on the watch list for price dips. Add Teck (TCK.B) to that list although the stock although the stock has run up quite a bit of late. Last to be highlighted for purchase include Agrium (AGU),Potash (POT) & Research in Motion (RIM). Have a great week ahead.

 

Wait for Stock Market Pullback

Last week’s primary recommendation was to wait for a market pullback. In all told, only 7 income/dividend stocks were recommended for any accumulation including 3 banks (Bank of Montreal, CIBC & Royal), 3 telecoms (BCE, Rogers & Telus) and 1 pipeline (Transcanada). The overall gain for these stocks was a small 0.06% although positive when compared to the TSX Composite loss of -0.49%. One stock which was highlighted to watch carefully: Labrador Iron Ore Units (LIF.UN) increased by 4.65% and hit a new 52 week high. The stock has also hit new 52 week highs 6 of the last 7 weeks. This warrants further attention to buy on dips.

The market appears to be headed lower still before climbing back. As such I’ll recommend readers to continue with caution. My personal margin and RSP portfolios are currently over 90% in cash as I wait for opportunities. I can and do move in and out quite rapidly. This past week I purchased and sold for profit Research in Motion (RIM) on 7 occasions. It’s a good trading stock with lots of intraday movement.

Income stocks with potential to accumulate on weakness include: BCE, Bank of Montreal (BMO), CIBC (CM), Rogers (RCI.B), Royal Bank (RY), Telus (T), Toronto Dominion (TD), & Transcanada (TRP) – the same as recommended previously with the addition of TD. I also like Brookfield Properties (BPO) which has both a low PE ratio and reasonable dividend payout.

Long Term Growth Stock recommendations include: As recommended previously, Agrium (AGU), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Potash (POT), RIM & Teck (TCK.B). There’s no rush to jump into the market but be open to wild price movements to capitalize on opportunities.

 

 

Large Cap Stocks: Next Market Direction ?

14 of 17 stocks recommended last week increased in price for an average gain of 1.82% versus the TSX Composite gain of 1.62%. Top income recommendations did very well including Bank of Montreal (BMO)+3.62%, CIBC (CM) +5.23% & Royal Bank (RY) +4.34%. Other income stocks recommended for accumulating positions included BCE +4.00%, Toronto Dominion (TD) +2.66% and newly added more speculative stock AGF Management (AGF.B) +3.83%.  Growth stocks of note included Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) +1.84%, Talisman (TLM) +3.06% & Teck Resources (TCK.B) +2.66%. The market closed at highs for the week so maybe wait for a small pullback before getting into new trading positions.

At current prices I’ll make a few longer term recommendations including growth stocks: Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIM), Teck  (TCK.B), Canadian Natural (CNQ), Nexen (NXY) and Talisman (TLM). While gold has come down a little of late, stocks worth watching for upwards movement include Agnico Eagle (AEM) & Kinross (K). Labrador Iron Ore Units (LIF.UN) has been very hot of late and merits a closer look.

Income stocks still poised for some growth include the major banks (as listed above) and telecom giants BCE, Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T). Transcanada (TRP) dipped 2.3% this past week and is a stalwart in any portfolio. A few opportunities still exist in higher paying corporate preferred shares including Bombardier (BBD.PR.C & D) Brookfield Properties (BPO.PR.L) & Canadian Western Bank (CWB.PR.A).

15 of the 22 stocks recommended early January 2010 to be purchased for the year ahead have increased an average 10.6% year to date (exactly the same as the TSX Composite) but the added bonus is that the recommended portfolio has also delivered over 4% in income. Wait for your moment.

 

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Volatility Ahead ?

While only 5 of the 13 stocks recommended last week increased in price, the overall portfolio decreased 0.6% versus the TSX Composite loss of 1.36%. Top winners were Research in Motion (RIM) +7.64% and Nexen (NXY) +2.39%. Top losers were Agrium (AGU) -4.54% and Royal Bank (RY) -4.14%. If you take the time to read back in time through this blog, you’ll discover that for the most part, the recommendations beat the TSX Composite almost every week.

The losses of this past week should offer opportunities to accumulate particularly the high dividend paying financial stocks. These include: Bank of Montreal (BMO) down 4.01% this week (4.81% dividend), CIBC (CM) -4.24% (4.63% dividend) & Royal Bank (RY) -4.14% (3.77% dividend).

Other income stocks worth accumulating include: BCE (5.55% dividend), Rogers (RCI.B) 3.50%, & Transcanada (TRP) 4.35%.

New recommendations added to a watch list only (i.e. more speculative) include: AGF Management (AGF.B) -4.54% this week (6.43% dividend), Brookfield Properties (BPO) -5.05% (3.18%) & Riocan Reit (REI.UN) -3.98% (6.28%). Toronto Dominion (TD) is always a solid income stock worth accumulating.

Immediate growth opportunities to purchase on weakness include: Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT) & Research in Motion (RIM). As in recent weeks, these stocks are recommended as long term buys only. RIM has been very hot of late increasing over 19% in the past three weeks. I traded the stock ten times in the past three weeks. Hot stocks recommended for purchasing on weakness also include: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) & Teck (TCK.B). Both hit new 52 week highs this past week and are due for a little pullback before surging forward. Lastly, both Nexen (NXY) & Talisman (TLM) have been showing strength in the past weeks and should be watched for any opportunities on weakness. Looks like a volatile week ahead. Be patient to take advantage of long term opportunities but play it safe. Good luck.

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Recap of the Past 6 Weeks

Seven Stocks have been recommended every week over the past six weeks (since Sep. 26).  3 of the 5 high dividend paying stocks recommended to accumulate on weakness have increased including Telus (T), Royal Bank (RY) & TD. BCE, the one dividend accumulate stock is near the same price while Rogers (RCI.B) lost 6.67%. The two growth stocks recommended have both increased substantially including Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) +16.21% & Nexen (NXY) +9.13%.

Four Stocks have been recommended five times over the past six weeks. Bank of Montreal (BMO) the one dividend paying stock to accumulate rose in price while two of the three growth stocks increased markedly. These include Talisman (TLM) +18.29% & Teck Resources (TCK.B) +23.20%. Potash (POT), the one loser, was re-categorized as a speculative long term buy on October 24^th owing to the unknown outcome of the hostile takeover by BHP. However, I did predict that the takeover would not go through.

Three Stocks have been recommended four times over the past six weeks. One being Agrium (AGU) recommended at $76.50 and removed from recommendation list when it hit $90.22. The stock closed this week at $85.21. Suncor (SU) increased 11.05%. The third stock Research in Motion (RIM), was recommended at $49.98 and has increased 11.34%. While it has traded much higher of late ($58.66 versus closing price of $55.65) the stock was re-categorized as a long term buy after the sharp run up at the close of October.

Recommendations going forward include: Income: The same five stocks as listed above: BCE, RCI.B, T, RY & TD. Growth: The same five stocks as listed above (try to buy on weakness): CNQ, NXY, SU, TLM & TCK.B. Speculative Long Term Growth: The same as above including AGU, POT & RIM. November and December are traditionally strong months for the market. While many stocks have moved close to their 52 week highs, certain opportunities are unfolding with the improved investor mood now that US elections are out of the way. Have a great week ahead.

 

Candian large Cap Stocks: The Week Ahead

6 of the 10 Stocks recommended as buys or accumulates increased in price since last week for an average gain of +1.5% versus the TSX Composite +0.6%. Top gainer was Research in Motion (RIM) +15.42%. Top loser was Rogers (RCI.B) -9.37%. Going forward the market appears stuck with many stocks hitting or near their 52 week highs. The results of the US elections will probably have the greatest impact on the market this coming week. A strong Republican showing will push stocks higher. A stronger than expected Democratic showing will pull stocks down.  Impossible to predict which way the vote will go.

Energy and telecom stocks appear to be in correction mode. This could open up for opportunities to accumulate based upon weakness.

Stocks to accumulate on weakness include: BCE, Rogers (RCI.B), Telus (T) all paying large and reasonably safe dividends paying stock holders while waiting for price appreciation. Following the setback this past week, I recommend particularly watching Rogers for any opportunity. Canadian National Rail (CNR) which hit a new 52 week high lost 4.07% this past week owing to weakness in the resource sector and should be watched for any pullbacks to accumulate.  Canadian Pacific (CP) should be put on the radar screen too.

Long term buys include: Potash (POT) & Research in Motion (RIM). It appears that the Potash sale to BHP Billiton will not go through and this could hurt the stock price which should offer an opportunity to pick it up much cheaper than now. Categorize it as a speculative long term buy.

Long term accumulates on weakness include: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Nexen (NXY), Royal Bank (RY) & Toronto Dominion (TD). This past Friday evening a CNBC Fast Money commentator listed TD as a top pick going forward.

Income recommendations include: Preferred shares still paying high dividends are as follows: Bombardier BBD.PR.C 6.5984%, BBD.PR.D 6.548%; Brookfield Properties BPO.PR.L 6.3155% BPO.PR.N 5.8931%; Canadian Western Bank CWB.PR.A 6.5081%; Investors Group IGM.PR.B 5.8906%; Laurentian Bank LB.PR.D 5.9148%; Manulife MFC.PR.D 5.8929%; National Bank NA.PR.O 5.9331%, NA.PR.P 5.9055%; Power Financial PWF.PR.I 5.877%. It could be a momentous week ahead. Keep a close watch for large price moves and new opportunities. Good luck.  

 

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Stay Conservative

 

9 of the 10 (income) stocks recommended last week increased in price for an average gain of 1.2% as compared to the TSX Composite loss of 0.1%. Top gainer was Rogers (RCI.B) @ +2.89%. Two stocks hit new 52 week highs including Rogers and BCE. 6 of the 8 stocks recommended to purchase only on weakness dipped below their closing price of last week but only two bounced back. These are Research in Motion (RIM) and Talisman (TLM).

Going forward I still recommend holding and/or closing positions as many stocks are near or have crossed their 52 week high mark.

Hot Stocks include: Some performances over the past 4 weeks worth noting are: Agrium (AGU) +12.6%, Canadian Pacific (CP) +9.25%, Nexen (NXY) +11.9% & Talisman (TLM) +9.4%. These stocks should be watched closely for any pullback opportunities. The major banks surged early in the week only to settle back by Friday. These should also be watched for pullback opportunities including Bank of Montreal (BMO), CIBC (CM), National Bank (NA), Royal Bank (RY) and Toronto Dominion (TD). Bank of Montreal and Royal Bank have been the weakest performers and would merit the highest rating of accumulate on weakness. The telecoms should be accumulated for their high dividend payouts including BCE, Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T).

Long Term Buys: Encana (ECA) dropped 7.59% this week and is near a 52 week low. It also pays a (reasonably safe) 2.98% annual dividend. Sister firm Cenovus (CVE) also dropped 3.8% this week and pays a 2.76% dividend. Research in Motion (RIM) should increase substantially by next year.

Resource Stocks could be in for a correction shortly however, for the long term keep a close watch on Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Kinross (K) & Teck Resources (TCK.B), all of which should be accumulated on weakness.

Speculative Buy: Potash (POT). Depending on the “political” outcome of a possible sale or not. Have a great week ahead and remain conservative.

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Hold Recommendation

With many stocks at or near 52 week highs, I’ll recommend that you hold and not purchase too many stocks unless market weakens. While only 7 of the 14 stocks recommended last week increased in price, the average portfolio gain was 1.06% versus the TSX Composite of 0.59%. Top gainers included Agrium (AGU) +7.34%, Nexen (NXY) +4.62%, Teck (TCK.B) +2.22% & Bank of Montreal (BMO) +2.04%. Top loser was Research in Motion (RIM) -1.52. 4 of 14 recommendations hit new 52 week highs including Agrium (AGU), BCE, Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T). As predicted the market did not move too much.

Bond Recommendations include: Instead of holding cash consider Riocan Reit corporate bonds due June 2012 yielding 2.41%. Other high yielding corporate bonds include: Consumer Waterheater April 2014 yielding 4.57% & Yellow Pages Feb 2016 @ 5.01%.

Income Recommendations include: BCE (5.38% dividend), BMO (4.63%), Crescent Point Energy (CPG) 6.90%, Rogers (RCI.B) 3.21%, Royal Bank (RY) 3.60%, Riocan Reit (REI.UN) 6.17%, Telus (T) 4.32%, TSX (X) 4.83%, Toronto Dominion (TD) 3.29%, & Vermillion (VET) 5.76%.

Growth Stock Recommendations on weakness include: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Nexen (NXY), Suncor (SU), Talisman (TLM), Kinross (K), Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIM) & Teck (TCK.B). I recommend holding and not increasing Agrium (AGU) Canadian National (CNR) & Canadian Pacific (CP).

Nothing wrong with taking some profits and preparing for another upleg later this year. Good luck.

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Purchase on Weakness

 

11 of the 12 Buy Recommendations from last weeks’ blog increased in price for an average gain of 2.56% while the TSX Composite gained 1.4%.

Top gainers included Agrium (AGU) +7.35% and a new 52 week high, Canadian Pacific (CP) +4.66%, Nexen (NXY) +3.88%, Teck (TCK.B) +3.83, Suncor (SU) +3.27% & Canadaian Natural Resources (CNQ) +3.26%. Only loser was Cenovus (CVE) -1.68%.

6 of the 8 recommendations to accumulate also increased in price. Top gainers were Rogers (RCI.B) +4.36% & Telus (T) +2.92% both hitting new 52 week highs. Top losers were Manulife (MFC) -2.74% & Industrial Alliance (IAG) -1.60%.

Going forward note that a  number of stocks have come close to their 52 week highs therefore are recommended as strict buys only on weakness. Included in this category are Agrium (AGU) , Canadian Natural (CNQ) & Teck (TCK.B).

Recommendations for the week going forward only include: Nexen  (NXY), Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIM), Suncor (SU) & Talisman (TLM). Stocks to be highlighted for accumulating consist of telecoms and financials. These include: BCE, Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Royal Bank (RY) and Toronto Dominion (TD). I’ve removed Manulife (MFC), Power Financial  (PWF) & Sunlife (SLF) owing to ongoing weak performance.   

Income recommendations include Canadian Western Bank Preferred Shares (CWB.PR.A) paying 6.42% annually and Yellow Pages Corporate Bonds due March 2020 paying over 6.6% annually if held to maturity. Stocks may have hit a temporary top so buy on weakness. Good luck & happy Thanksgiving.

Stock Opportunities Unfolding ?

14 of the 21 stocks recommended last blog increased in price for an average 2.2% versus the TSX Composite gain of 1.3%.

• Top gainers included Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) +8.47%, Teck Resources (TCK.B) + 7.43%, Encana (ECA) +5.58%, Talisman (TLM) +5.52% & Suncor (SU) +5.41%.
• Top losers were Manulife (MFC) -2.97%, BCE -2.25% & Sunlife (SLF) -1.64%. Energy stocks had a big week with many trust units hitting new 52 week highs including Bonavista (BNP.UN), Baytex (BTE.UN) & Enerplus (ERF.UN).

The axis of the market appears to have evolved into autumn trading with resources taking over market leadership from safer financials & telecom. For my personal accounts I traded Research in Motion (RIM) 4 times purchasing and selling it at the following: $48.21-49.99, $48.23-49.98 $48.63-50.67, & $49.58-50.91. Stock closed at $51.20 and remains a top trading recommendation. Autumn is usually a strong season for technology and RIM should do well into the new year. For safety and income I purchased in an RSP account YPG Holding March 2020 corporate bond yielding if held to maturity 6.78%.

Top recommendations on weakness for the week ahead include: Agrium (AGU) & Potash (POT). Also watch Canadian National Rail (CNR) & Canadian Pacific (CP). Energy and overall resource stocks should keep surging forward but try to purchase only on pullbacks. Recommendations include all top gainers noted above plus Cenovus (CVE), Nexen (NXY) & Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN). For safety and higher dividends, accumulate financials and telecom including Bank of Montreal (BMO), Royal (RY), TD, Industrial Alliance (IAG), Manulife (MFC) & Sunlife (SLF), BCE, Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T). Watch the market closely as it could be a strong week for both accumulation and trading in and out of positions. Best of luck.

Momentum Change ?

Friday’s very positive stock performance could signal a change in market psychology as autumn has arrived. Market opportunities should begin to unfold soon but caution is still recommended. As the deadline for Trust Units transforming into Corporations nears, I recommend gradually pulling out of this sector to await developments in the new year. This move will also highlight top paying dividend stocks including Telecoms, Financials & Pipelines.

Top Holding Recommendations include:

• Telecom: BCE, Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T)
• Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO), CIBC (CM), Manulife (MFC), National Bank (NA), Royal (RY), Sunlife (SLF) & TD
• Pipeline: Enbridge (ENB) & TransCanada (TRP). Husky (HSE) might finally take off owing to high yield.

Resource Stocks should bounce back with growing market confidence. Top Holding Recommendations include:

• Precious Metals: Agnico Eagle (AEM), Goldcorp (G), Kinross (K), & Teck (TCK.B);
• Energy: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Encana (ECA), Nexen (NXY), Suncor (SU), & Talisman (TLM).

Top Speculative Recommendations include: Research in Motion (RIM) & SXC Healthcare (SXC).

Trades I made this past week: Bought RIM @ $46.46 & sold @ $49.21 (5.9% gain), repurchased RIM @ $48.82 & sold @ $49.95 (2.3% gain).

Stock Recommendations to purchase on weakness include: Agrium (AGU), CNR & CP.

Income Recommendations:

• Preferred Shares: Bombardier (BBD.Pr.C & D), Brookfield Properties (BPO.PR.L) and Canadian Western Bank (CWB.PR.A).
• Corporate Bonds: Citigroup Finance Nov. 2012 @ 2.84%, Consumers Waterheater April 2014 @ 4.76%. YPG Holdings Strip Coupon Bonds 2018-2020 if held to maturity pay between 5.93% - 6.87%.

Buy on weakness – sell into strength. Good luck.

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Market Hold Recommendation

8 of 14 stocks recommended last blog (Sep. 5^th) increased in value for an average 0.5% gain. Top performers included Kinross (K) +4.30%, Agnico Eagle (AEM) +3.33%, Royal Bank (RY) +3.03%, Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS.UN) +2.82%, & Research in Motion (RIM) +2.73%. Weakest performers included Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) -3.27%, Encana (ECA) -2.32% & Power Financial (PWF) -2.08%.

The market has been range bound and appears to be near its short term top. Recommendation is to hold or accumulate on weakness without venturing too heavily into stocks for now. Best positions are higher paying dividend yielding stocks. The market should improve later in fall towards year end.

Top Holding Recommendations include: Telecom: BCE: 5.47% dividend, Rogers (RCI.B) 3.33% & Telus (T) 4.57%; Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO) 4.64%, CIBC (CM) 4.69%, Manulife (MFC) 4.00%, National Bank (NA) 3.76%, Power Financial (PWF) 4.80%, Royal (RY) 3.68%, Sunlife (SLF) 5.23%, & TD 3.22%.

Top Picks in the above include: Telus, Manulife & Royal Bank.

Resource Stocks: For longer term picks, I recommend Agnico Eagle (AEM), Goldcorp (G), Kinross (K), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN), Cenovus, (CVE), Encana (ECA), & Suncor (SU). Agrium (AGU) is still a top pick but is at a 52 week high. This is still recommended as a hold.

Top speculative pick is still Research in Motion (RIM).

Income: Most preferred shares recommended in this blog have increased substantially in price (decreased in payout) since being highlighted. A few still offer reasonable income including Bombardier BBD.PR. C & D (between 6.5-6.7%), Canadian Western Bank CWB.PR.A (6.43%) & Brookfield Properties BPO.PR.L (6.37%). Still paying above 5.8% include: Brookfield Asset BAM.PR.M & N, Brookfield Properties BPO.PR.N, Great West GWO.PR.M, Industrial Alliance IAG.PR.E & F, IGM Financial IGM.PR.B, Laurentian LB.PR.D, Manulife MFC.PR.B & D, National Bank NA.PR.O & P, & Weston WN.PR.A & C. Lastly, bank of Montreal BMO.PR.N pays 5.75%. A few other individual bank and insurance preferreds pay 5.5-5.6%%, most less. Stay defensive and be prepared  for opportunities coming this autumn.  Good luck.

 

 

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Latest Recommendations

Last blog early Wednesday, August 25, I recommended certain opportunities based upon many stocks hitting or nearing their 52 week lows. All 11 stocks recommended increased in price for an average gain of 9.91%. Top gainers included Sunlife (SLF) +18.02%, Manulife (MFC) +17.39%, Kinross (K) +14.68%, Nexen (NXY) +12.33% & Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) +10.79%. Top recommendations were Encana (ECA) +7.47% & Royal Bank (RY) +8.09%.

This past week a number of Large Cap Canadian Stocks hit new 52 week highs including: Agrium (AGU), Barrick Gold (ABX), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Canadian National (CN), Canadian Pacific (CP), Eldorado Gold (ELD), BCE, Shaw Communications (SJR.B), & Telus (T).

In the past 9 trading days I purchased Agrium (AGU) @ $73.20 (closed $75.46), Manulife (MFC) @ $11.88 ($13.23) & Royal Bank (RY) $49.20 ($52.80). I also purchased Yellow Pages 2020 Corporate Bond yielding 6.78% if held to maturity.

Recommendations going forward include Precious Metals: Agnico Eagle (AEM), Barrick (ABX), Eldorado (ELD), Goldcorp (G), and Kinross (K). Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Manulife (MFC), Power Financial (PWF), and Royal Bank (RY). Energy: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN), Encana (ECA), and Suncor (SU). Speculative: Research in Motion (RIM). Be careful; market could flip quickly. Good luck.

 

Canadian Large Cap Stocks Moving Forward

 

This blog has repeatedly urged caution since mid April. In addition, recommended recent strategies include selling on strong days (e.g. August 3^rd AM), purchasing high paying dividend stocks to bolster returns, and considering high yielding Preferred Shares (e.g. Bombardier, Brookfield Properties, Canada Western Bank, & insurance companies).

Furthermore, this blog has recommended precious metal companies (Agnico Eagle, Eldorado, Iamgold, & Silver Wheaton), telecom (BCE & Telus) and highlighted the strength in agricultural plays (Agrium & Potash) prior to the recent run-up.

I still recommend extreme caution and to remain mostly out of equities for now even though certain opportunities have become apparent. According to market guru Jim Cramer of CNBC on Monday, he hasn’t seen the market look so troubling in years owing to small retail investors having fled the market.

Market Opportunities worth watching: Stocks hitting 52 week lows yesterday include: Encana (ECA), Husky (HSE), Manulife (MFC), Nexen (NXY), RIM, Royal Bank (RY), & Sunlife (SLF). Encana and Royal in particular look interesting at these levels. Other stocks nearing 52 week lows or displaying weakness include Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS.UN), & Power Financial (PWF). In the precious metals sector, Kinross (K) has been particularly weak and should be watched for opportunities. Overall recommendation is to sit tight and wait for further market meltdown.

 

Canadian Large Cap Stocks: Continue With Caution

While the TSX Composite lost 2.3% this past week, this would not give a complete picture of the widespread selling pressure placed on large cap Canadian stocks. Look at some of these figures on this past week’s stock performances: Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO) – 4.08%, Industrial Alliance Insurance (IAG)-3.93%, Manulife (MFC) -9.27%, National Bank (NA) -4.81%, Power Corp (POW) -4.74%, & Sunlife (SLF) -6.50%. Resources: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) -8.42%, Encana (ECA) -6.93%, Nexen (NXY) -6.51%, Talisman (TLM) -5.67%, & Teck Resources (TCK.B) -5.73%. Transport: Canadian National (CNR) -4.26% & Canadian Pacific (CP) -3.87%. Manulife, Nexen & Sunlife all hit new 52 week lows this past week.

Hot Sector: Both Agrium (AGU) +2.65% & Potash (POT) -0.49% have held up well through the carnage. Both are up over 13% through the past 4 weeks.

Safety Plays: Preferred Shares: Bombardier (C & D) pay around 7%, Brookfield Properties (L & N) 6.1-6.4%, Canadian Western Bank (A) 6.4%. Insurance companies along with the two smaller banks (CIBC & National) pay in excess of 6% with limited volatility. Corporate bonds 7-9 years out are paying 4.5%.

Precious Metals: Consider Claymore Gold Bullion ETF (CGL) hedged versus US dollar. Agnico Eagle (AEM), Eldorado (ELD), Iamgold (IMG), & Silver Wheaton (SLW) look promising in uncertain times.

Strategy: Watch closely but stay defensive and light on equities. Sell into strength and wait it out. Some of the stocks mentioned above have suffered severe losses and could be poised for rapid increases but it might takes weeks before the rebound. Remain cautious and good luck, Warren

 

 

Surviving the Volatility

Throughout the past 3+ months this blog has repeatedly recommended caution and reducing equity positions. I have also recommended when making equity purchases, to focus on defensive stocks which provide for high dividend payouts to compensate for unpredictable capital gains. Please review how some of these and other recommendations have succeeded this past week.

• Selling into Strength: Following the big rise in New York on Monday (when Canadian markets were closed), this offered a perfect opportunity to sell early Tuesday AM into market strength. As a result, 7 of the 9 stocks I sold were above their original purchase price of the past 1-4 months. Had I not sold into strength, 8 of the 9 stocks would have ended the week below the Tuesday AM selling price. The difference was a 2.7% portfolio gain versus a 1.8% loss.
• The Importance of Dividend Paying Stocks: Over 80% or 2.2% of the 2.7% market gain I achieved on selling into strength Tuesday AM was based on dividend payouts. During periods of market instability or flat performance, dividends can provide for the gains required to insure portfolio growth. These days that can make the whole difference. Another corresponding strategy to be looked at in the future is to sell covered calls on these same stocks. This can provide for a regular flow of income without having to alter positions and trigger capital gains, losses or sales commissions.
• Watch out for Market Volatility: Try to pick stocks in the same sector that move in opposite directions. 2 weeks ago, Industrial Alliance (IAG) decreased 7.06% while Sunlife (SLF) increased 6.48%. 2 ½ weeks ago, after hitting a new 52 week low, Manulife (MFC) bounced back 12.6% from this low within a week. This week Manulife dropped 14.14% and hit another 52 week low.  Last week Brookfield Properties (BPO) neared its market top by two pennies and then dropped 8.18%. This week it dropped another 4.0%. It would appear to me that ordinary investors are losing money. This type of negative volatility has swept across most sectors.

• Hot Sector: Agriculture including Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT) & Viterra (VT). Note however that while Viterra increased 6.83% over the week, it suffered a 4.76% loss on Friday. What was hot last week gives no indication as to future performance in these volatile markets.
• Solid Stock Performers: Throughout the past 3 weeks, Suncor (SU) and Talisman (TLM) have held up well versus the rest of the energy sector. In the banking sector both National Bank (NA) and TD have survived reasonably unscathed. Be careful and lighten up equity holdings selling into strength.

Warren.

Large Cap Canadian Value Stock Picks

This Blog has recommended extreme caution continually since mid April. With markets gyrating up and down, I’d like to recommend some safer Large Cap Canadian Value Stocks. These usually offer lower Price to Earnings Ratios and Higher Dividend Yields. My top value picks are as follows:

• Financials:
• Bank of Montreal (BMO ) paying a 4.53% annual dividend
• CIBC (CM) 5.09%
• National Bank (NA) 4.34%
• Royal Bank (RY) 3.84% (stock also declined 3.83% this past week)
• TD 3.39%
• AGF Management (AGF.B) 7.20%

• Telecommunications:
• Bell Alliant Trust Units (BA.UN) 11.57%
• BCE 5.44%
• Rogers (RCI.B) 3.45%
• Shaw (SJR.B) 4.28%
• Telus (T) 4.78%

• Energy and Trust Units:
• Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN) 6.49%
• Crescent Point Energy (CPG) 7.33%
• Encana (ECA) 2.58% (declined 4.08% this week)
• Pengrowth (PGF.UN) 8.28%
• Vermillion (VET.UN) 6.67%.

Be careful with trust units as most convert to corporations in 2011.

Longer Terms Picks

• Financial and Insurance Companies:
• Great West Life (GWO) 5.03%
• Manulife (MFC) 3.45% (hit a new 52 week low this past week)
• Power Financial (PWF) 4.88%
• Sunlife (SLF) 5.30%.

These companies should be watched as they tend to mirror market conditions and could still fall.

Market Mirrors: When markets improve again, keep a close eye on Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) & Teck (TCK.B).

• Preferred Shares: Most banks pay 5.7%, CIBC & National paying slightly higher. Insurance companies pay around 6.0%. Topping the list are Bombardier (BBD.PR.C & D) @ 7.0%, Brookfield Properties (BPO.PR.L & N) @ 6.45% & 6.15%. Recommendation is for Canadian Western Bank (CWB.A) @ 6.54%.
• High Yielding Corporate Bonds: (for RSP’S) 10 year bonds: YPG Holdings @ 6.76% & Fairfax Financial @ 6.76%.

Be wary and sell in to strength, Warren.

Defensive Stock & Investments for Volatile Markets

3 weeks ago, the TSX Composite of Large Cap Stocks decreased by 4.39%. 2 weeks ago, the TSX increased by 3.84%. This past week the TSX decreased by 0.10%. With the markets swinging wildly in both directions, it would be prudent to reduce overall market positions (sell on strength) and trading frequency and wait it out for better times. I’m therefore recommending some strong Large Cap Canadian dividend paying stocks, preferred shares and bonds.

• Provincial Strip Coupon Bonds offer safety and yield for RSP’s. Annual cumulative yield to maturity on bonds due 2020 are approximately 4.3%, 2022 @ 4.5% and 2025 @ 4.75%. Provincial Bonds paying bi-annually pay a slightly lower yield than strip coupon bonds.

• Corporate Bonds offering higher than average yields include the following: Fairfax Financial June 22, 2020, 7.25% Coupon yielding 6.70% annually if held to maturity, Brookfield Renewable November 11, 2018, 5.25% coupon yielding 4.93%, H&R Real Estate February 3, 2017, 5.90% coupon yielding 5.05%, Citigroup Finance September 22, 2014, 6.75% coupon yielding 4.544%, & Consumers Waterheater April 30, 2014, 6.75% coupon yielding 4.98%.

• Preferred Shares: Most larger Canadian bank preferred shares are paying  approximately 5.6% annually. CIBC preferred shares (CM.PR.D, E, G, L,  & M) are yielding 5.8% with National Bank (NA.PR.K, M, O & P) yielding 5.9%. Insurance companies including Great West Life (GWO), Manulife (MFC) & Sunlife (SLF) are also yielding 5.9%. Industrial Alliance (IAG.PR.A) pays 6.0%. Top yielding preferred shares include: Bombardier (BBD.PR.C & D) yielding 7.0-7.1%, Brookfield Properties (BPO.PR.L) @ 6.475% & BPO.PR.N @ 6.1475%. Lastly, note Canadian Western Bank (CWB.PR.A) yielding 6.46%.

• High Dividend Paying Canadian Large Cap Stocks worth considering include: Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO), CIBC (CM), National (NA), Royal (RY) & TD. Telecom: BCE, Rogers (RCI.B), Shaw (SJR.B), & Telus (T). Stay defensive, summer can be a dangerous time in the stock markets.  Warren.

Defensive Large Cap Stock Picks for the Summer of 2010

 

While only 4 of 21 recommendations increased in price week over week, the overall portfolio lost 1.69% versus the TSX Composite -1.84%. Three of the top six picks hit new 52 week highs including: Canadian National Rail (CNR), Eldorado Gold (ELD) & Gildan Activewear (GIL). Three other recommendations hit new highs including: Canadian Pacific (CP), Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T).

Top Winners were: Telus (T) +2.75%, Barrick Gold (ABX) +2.28%, & Eldorado Gold (ELD) +1.98%.

Top Losers were: Lululemon (LLL) -5.87%, Canadian Pacific (CP)-5.06%, & Bank of Montreal (BMO) -3.79%.

This Blog has recommended Utmost Caution since April 18^th. Top Recommendations going forward include Precious Metals and Telecom. Top Individual Large Cap Canadian Stock Picks include: Barrick (ABX), Eldorado (ELD), Goldcorp (G), Iamgold (IMG), and watch Silver Wheaton (SLW) for any pullbacks.

Top Defensive Stock Recommendations include: BCE (5.56% dividend), Crescent Point Energy (CPG) 7.08%, Pengrowth Trust (PGF.UN) 8.23%, Rogers (RCI.B) 3.51%, Telus (T) 4.87%, TransCanada (TRP) 4.35%, & Yellow Pages Units (YLO.UN) 12.62%.

Stocks on Watch Lists depending on Market Conditions include: Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO), CIBC (CM), National Bank (NA), Royal (RY) & TD. Energy: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Nexen (NXY), Suncor (SU) & Talisman (TLM). Transport: CNR & CP. Consumer: Gildan (GIL) & Lululemon (LLL).

Keep an eye on Teck Resources (TCK.B) for a good indication on market direction. Remain defensive and wait for opportunities later on. Will be out of town for July 4^th so blog to return on the 11^th. Happy Canada Day.  

 

Canadian Large Cap Stock Recommendations for June 2010

 

28 of 30 Stocks Highlighted last blog (June 13) increased in price. The overall portfolio increased 2.6% versus the TSX Composite of 2.2%. 4 of the top 13 recommendations hit new 52 week highs including: Canadian National Railway (CNR), Eldorado Gold (ELD), Lululemon (LLL) and SXC Health (SXC).

Overall Top Performers included: Iamgold (IMG) +5.74%, Power Corp (POW) +5.72%, Power Financial (PWF) +5.58%, Telus (T) +5.38%, AGF.B +4.96%, Lululemon (LLL) +4.80%, and Eldorado Gold (ELD) +4.30%.

This past week I purchased: AGF.B @ $15.19 (close $15.03), Bombardier Preferred D (BBD.PR.D) @ $18.20 ($18.16), Gildan Activewear (GIL) @ $32.23 ($32.65), Lululemon (LLL) @ $42.61 ($45.17), Nexen (NXY) $22.84 ($22.59), and Talisman (TLM) $17.65 ($17.65).

Top Short-Term Momentum Recommendations include: Eldorado Gold (ELD), Iamgold (IMG), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Canadian National Rail (CNR), Lululemon (LLL), & Gildan Activewear (GIL).

2^nd Tier Recommendations include: Transport: Canadian Pacific (CP); Energy: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Nexen (NXY), Suncor (SU), Talisman (TLM); Precious Metals: Agnico Eagle (AEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (G); Financials: National Bank (NA), Royal Bank (RY), Toronto Dominion (TD);

Income: Telecom: BCE, Rogers (RCI.B), Telus (T); Trust Units: Pengrowth (PGF.UN), Yellow Pages (YLO.UN). Watch List:  Teck Resources (TCK.B).

Market could be a near a short term top so remain cautious. Happy Fathers Day and have a great week, Warren.  

Succeeding in Good or Bad Markets

While Stock Sentiment has improved this past week, overall caution is recommended for summer trading.

Below you’ll find a selection of stocks that have:

1. Outperformed the market since the correction
2. Provide strong and safe defensive dividend payouts
3. Will outperform during strong markets

Stocks that have outperformed the market since correction with dividends include:

• BCE +3.07%
• Canadian National Rail (CNR) -0.65%
• Canadian Pacific (CP) +0.13%
• Cenvous Energy (CVE) +2.05%
• Encana (ECA) +6.63%
• Lululemon (LLL) -1.26%
• Shaw Communications (SJR.B) +3.19%
• SXC Healthcare (SXC) +11.08%
• Telus (T) +0.65%
• Talisman (TLM) +1.56%

These would all be recommended as Buys.

Precious Metal Stocks have also outperformed since the correction, the top Large Cap selections and recommendations being:

• Eldorado Gold (ELD) +25.88%
• Goldcorp (G) +13.59%
• Iamgold (IMG) +11.84%

Defensive Stock Picks with High Dividend Payouts include:

• Bell Alliant (BA.UN) 11.41%
• Bank of Montreal (BMO) 4.58%
• Crescent Point Energy (CPG) 7.17%
• National Bank (NA) 4.33%
• Pengrowth (PGF.UN) 8.43%
• Riocan (REI.UN) 7.39%
• Transcanada (TRP) 4.44%
• Yellow Pages (YLO.UN) 13.06%

Defensive Stocks on Watch List: Based on recent weak performances, the following should be watched for accumulating on value:

• AGF Management (AGF.B) 7.26% dividend
• Great West Life (GWO) 5.00%
• Manulife (MFC) 3.15%
• Power Corp (POW) 4.48%
• Power Financial (PWF) 5.04%
• Royal Bank (RY) 3.77%
• Toronto Dominion (TD) 3.46%

Stocks to Outperform during Positive Markets include:

• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
• Lululemon (LLL)
• SXC Healthcare (SXC)
• Teck (TCK.B)

Remain cautious, sell on strength and maintain substantial funds in cash. Have a great week ahead, Warren.

Defensivce Stock Picks

This blog has recommended caution since April 18. With the market gyrating wildly, it’s difficult for traders to capitalize successfully. Then don’t’. According to market guru Jim Cramer of CNBC’s Mad Money, sell on positive days. Year to date, the TSX Composite is down 1.5%. The key to beating the market in 2010 has been through higher dividend yielding stocks which compensate irrespective of performance. With the market down 12%+ since it’s high in late April, a review of Canadian Large Cap Stocks that have bucked the trend is of value.

Since April 23^rd, the following categories have Outperformed the Market Trend: Telecom &Precious Metals. Check out the performance of the following Large Cap Stocks since April 23:

• 
  
  Telecom:
• 
  
  Bell Canada (BCE) +2.47% (+5.52% annual dividend)
• 
  
  Rogers (RCI.B) +2.89% (+3.53% dividend)
• 
  
  Shaw (SJR.B) -1.08% (+ 4.58%)
• 
  
  Telus (T) + 3.19% (+5.07%)
• 
  
  Precious Metals:
• 
  
  Agnico eagle (AEM) -0.54%
• 
  
  Barrick (ABX) +8.77%
• 
  
  Goldcorp (G) +10.82%
• 
  
  Iamgold (IMG) +8.09%
• 
  
  Kinross (K) -1.76%
• 
  
  Yamana (YRI) +6.22%

Market outperformers since the correction also include:

• Canadian Pacific (CP) -2.26%
• Riocan Trust Units (REI.UN) -3.87% (+7.40% dividend)

Resource stocks that have outperformed include:  

• Encana (ECA) +6.40% (actually up 7.18% this week)
• Cenovus (CVE) -2.42% (2.91% dividend)
• and surprisingly Talisman (TLM) +1.03%
• One stock best suited only for volatile up days is Teck (TCK.B)

Preferred Shares analysis in brief:

• The big banks, BMO, BNS, RY & TD are yielding 5.7-5.8%, CIBC (CM) 5.9%,  National Bank (NA) 6.1%.
• Insurance / financial companies are yielding 6.1-6.2%. These include:
• Great West (GWO)
• Industrial Alliance (IAG)
• Power Corp (POW)
• Power Financial (PWF)
• Sunlife (SLF)

Corporates including: Brookfield Asset (BAM), Brookfield Properties (BPO) Weston (WN) are yielding more (6.2-6.9%).

New Stocks to add to the watch List: American web sites/publications Vector Vest and Investor’s Business Daily have repeatedly highlighted two particular Canadian Stocks that have greatly outpaced the market year to date and bear worth watching, particularly for their performance on up days in the market. These two stocks are Lululemon (LLL) -1.95% since correction and SXC Health (SXC) +10.74% since. The period June-August are not renowned for their positive market performance. Stay cautious and wait it out. Good luck, Warren.

The Worst May Since 1940

27 of 35 Canadian Large Cap Stocks recommended last blog (May 24) increased in price. Overall portfolio increased 1.91% versus the TSX composite +1.3% and TSX unweighted +2.7%.

Top Gainers included:

• 
  
  Teck (TCK.B) +6.07%
• 
  
  Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS.UN) +5.57%
• 
  
  Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) +5.53%
• 
  
  Baytex Energy Trust (BTE.UN) +5.13%
• 
  
  Cenovus Energy (CVE) +5.04%
• 
  
  Goldcorp (G) +4.47%
• 
  
  Kinross (K) +4.13%

Overall market indicator Manulife (MFC) increased 4.89%.  Top loser was Royal Bank (RY) down 6.88%.  It was the worst month of May for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-7.9%) since 1940 when western Europe fell to Nazi Germany.  With the market see-sawing back and forth, I recommend utmost caution.

Top Value recommendations include:

• 
  
  Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) – 8.23% (over the past 2 weeks)
• 
  
  Royal Bank (RY) -9.23%
• 
  
  Agrium (AGU) -3.18%

Top Defensive Stock recommendations include:

• 
  
  Bell Alliant Units (BA.UN) paying a 11.26% dividend
• 
  
  Bell (BCE) 5.67%
• 
  
  Cineplex Galaxy Units (CGX.UN) 6.36%
• 
  
  Crescent Point Energy (CPG) 7.08%
• 
  
  Telus (T) 5.20%, TransCanada (TRP) 4.58% 
• 
  
  Yellow Pages Units (YLO.UN) 12.79%

Market Watch List:

• 
  
  Financials:
• 
  
  Bank of Montreal (BMO)
• 
  
  Manulife (MFC)
• 
  
  National Bank (NA)
• 
  
  Power Financial (PWF)
• 
  
  Sunlife (SLF)
• 
  
  Toronto Dominion (TD)
• 
  
  Mining:
• 
  
  Agnico Eagle (AEM)
• 
  
  Barrick (ABX)
• 
  
  Goldcorp (G)
• 
  
  Kinross (K)
• 
  
  Potash (POT)
• 
  
  Teck (TCK.B)
• 
  
  Energy:
• 
  
  Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
• 
  
  Encana (ECA)
• 
  
  Nexen (NXY)
• 
  
  Suncor (SU)
• 
  
  Talisman (TLM)

Certain stocks might be worth taking small positions (example top value recommendations) but overall caution should be observed. Watch market sentiment closely.  Have a great week ahead, Warren.

Defensive Large Cap Stock Recommendations

Large Cap Stock Recommendations of last blog (May16) performed slightly better than the overall market, -3.84% versus the TSX Composite -4.1% and the TSX unweighted -6.1%. My recommendations are always unweighted.

Top Gainers included: Nexen (NXY) +4.68%, Cenovus (CVE) -0.44% & Royal Bank (RY) -0.83%. Precious Metal Stock picks dragged down the portfolio. Crude Oil is down 18.7% in May. TSX and S&P crossed below crucial 200 day moving averages as the week neared its end. This would be a negative technical indicator. Of interest, market guru Jim Cramer of CNBC’s Mad Money highlighted Bank of Montreal (BMO) as a top pick on Monday May 17. Most market experts recommend purchasing or holding higher dividend yielding large cap stocks to weather the storm.

My top defensive holding recommendations are as follows:

• Telecom: BCE (5.61% dividend), Rogers (RCI.B) 3.56% & Telus (T) 5.24%.
• Income Trusts: Bell Alliant (BA.UN) 11.02%, Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN) 6.22%, Riocan (REI.UN) 7.44%, & Yellow Pages (YLO.UN) 12.73%.
• Resources: Crescent Point Energy (CPG) 7.04% & TransCanada (TRP) 4.62%.

Assuming a market upturn, the following large cap stocks on a watch list would be recommended:

• Financials: BMO, National Bank (NA), Power Financial (PWF), RY & TD.
• Mining: Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT) & Teck (TCK.B).
• Energy: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Cenovus, Encana (ECA), Nexen, Suncor (SU), & Talisman (TLM).
• Energy Trusts: Arc (AET.UN), Bonavista (BNP.UN), Baytex (BTE.UN), Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN), Pengrowth (PGF.UN), Penn West (PWT.UN), & Vermillion (VET.UN).
• Precious Metals: Agnico Eagle (AEM0, Barrick (ABX), Goldcorp (G), & Kinross (K). Two stocks to watch based upon market direction are Manulife (MFC) and Sunlife (SLF), both of which are highly levered to the market. Continued caution is the watchword for the weeks ahead.

Good luck, Warren.

Canadian Large Cap Stock Pick Update

13 of 14 Canadian Large Cap Stocks recommended last blog (May 9) increased in price. Average gain for the portfolio was 2.87% versus the TSX Composite gain of +2.76%.

Top Gainers included:

• Kinross (K) +8.06%
• Goldcorp (G) +5.86%
• Yellow Pages (YLO.UN) +5.26%
• BCE +4.59%
• Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN) +3.85%.

14 of 21 Stocks on Watch List increased in price for an average gain of 1.54%.

Top gainers included:

• Penn West (PWT.UN) +8.67%
• Talisman (TLM) +7.92%
• Vermillion (VET.UN) +6.13%
• Encana (ECA) +4.72%
• Arc Energy (AET.UN) +4.64%

I recently purchased:

• Crescent Point Energy (CPG) @ $40.81 (closed $40.14)
• Yellow Pages (YLO.UN) @ $6.18 (closed $6.60)
• Teck (TCK.B) @ $35.01 and sold @ $36.23 (closed $35.34).

Stock recommendations going forward include:

• Precious Metals: Agnico Eagle (AEM), Barrick (ABX), Goldcorp (G), & Kinross (K).
• Agriculture: Agrium (AGU) & Potash (POT).
• Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO), National Bank (NA), Royal Bank (RY), Sunlife (SLF), & Toronto Dominion (TD).
• Income Stocks: BCE, Telus (T), TransCanada (TRP), TSX (X), & Yellow Pages (YLO.UN).

• Watch List Includes the following Energy Stocks: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Cenovus (CVE), Crescent Point (CPG), Encana (ECA), Nexen (NXY, Suncor (SU), & Talisman (TLM).
• Energy Trust Units on Watch List include: Arc (AET.UN), Bonavista (BNP.UN), Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN), Pengrowth (PGF.UN), Penn West (PWT.UN), and Vermillion (VET.UN).
• Be Cautious on: Manitoba Tel (MBT). Latest earnings now represent half of dividend payout and this would lead one to expect a substantial dividend cut.

Be prudent, market could go either way this week. Good luck, Warren.

Stock Market Caution Ahead

Many Market Experts have recently predicted a probable 10%+ downturn in the North American Exchanges. That would mean we’re only about half way there. As mentioned in the last few blogs, one should remain cautious and only buy on dips. Most of the recent recommendations of this blog have been for intermediate and not short term gains. With the European debt crisis increasing in volume, one must pay attention to the warning signs. This however, does not deny the fact that Canadian Large Cap Stocks are looking more inviting.

Stocks recommended last blog (May 2) performed similar to the TSX Composite, down -4.29% vs -4.24%. Best performers included Telus (T) +3.01%, Agnico Eagle (AEM) +1.71% & Goldcorp (G) +1.41%. 23 of the 24 stocks selected were at some point higher than their previous Friday close.

Stock Recommendations going forward include:

• 
  
  Precious Metals: Agnico Eagle, Goldcorp & Kinross (K).
• 
  
  Telecom: BCE, Bell Alliant (BA.UN), Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus. Financials: Bank of Montreal (BMO) & National Bank (NA).
• 
  
  Income: Crescent Point Energy (CPG), Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN), Ricoan (REI.UN), TransCanada (TRP) & Yellow Pages (YLO.UN).
• 
  
  Energy Stocks have come down hard this past week but are certainly worth watching for purchase on any further substantial drops. These include: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Cenovus (CVE), Encana (ECA), Husky (HSE), Nexen (NXY), Suncor (SU) & Talisman (TLM).
• 
  
  Energy trust units also worth watching include: Arc (AET.UN), Bonavista (BNP.UN), Baytex (BTE.UN), Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN), Pengrowth (PGF.UN) Penn West (PWT.UN), & Vermillion (VET.UN).
• 
  
  Financials worth watching include: Power Financial (PWF), Royal Bank (RY), Sunlife (SLF), TSX (X) & TD.  Lastly are mining stocks Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT) & Teck (TCK.B).

Lighten up, opportunities will unfold. Good luck, Warren.

Stock Recommendations Going Forward

It was a negative week past for the markets. Only 8 of 17 growth stock picks of last blog (April 24) increased in price and only 1 of 7 long term income stocks increased week over week. However, the overall portfolio was only down 0.007% versus the TSX Composite down 1.27%.

Big Gainers included: Agnico Eagle (AEM) +4.78%, Encana (ECA) +2.85%, Goldcorp (G) +8.74%, Kinross (K) +6.71%, Potash (POT) +2.12%, and Rogers Communications (RCI.B) +2.67%. Big Losers included: Athatbaska Oil Sands (ATH) -4.28%, Power financial (PWF) -2.75%, Sunlife (SLF) -4.87%, Teck Cominco (TCK.B) -8.80%, TransCanada Corp (TRP) -4.52%, and Viterra (VT) -2.93%.

Depending on Greek bailout results, gold could go substantially higher or lower in the short term. Kinross was highly recommended on CNBC’s influential show Fast Money on Friday and there was generally lots of discussion during the week of Agnico, Barrick (ABX) and Goldcorp. I recommend watching these precious metal stocks for opportunities to get in or out depending on outcome of European news.

Growth Stocks recommended on positive momentum include: Agrium (AGU), Canadian Natural resources (CNQ), Encana (ECA), Potash (POT), Suncor (SU), and Talisman (TLM). Growth Stocks recommended owing to recent weakness include: Nexen (NXY) -7.84% this past week and Teck Cominco (TCK.B) I purchased Teck @ $41.17, $41.00 & $40.04 (average $40.73) this past week. It closed at $39.92. I rate both strong mid-term buys.

Income Stocks recommended on strength include: Brookfield Properties (BPO), Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN), Riocan (REI.UN) & Rogers (RCI.B) & Telus (T).  Income Stocks recommended on weakness include: Husky (HSE) -5.43% this past week, Sunlife (SLF) & TransCanada Corp (TRP). Great week, Warren.

Canadian Large Cap Stock Recommendations

 

18 of the 21 Large Cap Stock Recommendations of last blog (April 11) increased in price. 9 of 10 Growth Stocks increased with an average gain of 2.25%. 9 of 11 Income Recommendations increased with an average gain of 2.08%. Overall portfolio gained 2.14% versus TSX Composite gain of 1.40%. Top gainers included: Athabaska Oil Sands (ATH) +4.69%, Crescent Point Energy (CPG) +4.98%, Encana (ECA) +3.81%, Husky Energy (HSE) +4.73%, Riocan Income Units (REI.UN) +3.86%, & Talisman (TLM) +4.00%. Other nice gains included: BCE +2.77%, Suncor (SU) +2.83%, Telus (T) +2.83%, & Teck Cominco (TCK.B) +2.58%.

I purchased in several accounts the following stocks on weakness including:  Agrium (AGU) @ $62.88 & $62.96 (close $62.51) & TCK.B @ $41.75 & $42.00 (close $43.77). I also purchased Canadian Natural Resources @ $75.77 & later sold it @ $78.55 (close $78.50).

Large Cap Canadian Growth Stock Recommendations for the weeks ahead include: Energy Sector: Athabaska Oil Sands (ATH), Canadian Natural (CNQ), Cenovus Energy (CVE), Encana (ECA), Suncor (SU), & Talisman (TLM). Mining Sector: Agnico Eagle (AEM), Goldcorp (G), Kinross (K) & Teck (TCK.B). Agriculture: Agrium (AGU) Potash )POT) & Vitera (VT). Financials: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Royal Bank (RY), Toronto Dominon (TD) & TSX (X). Addditional Income Recommendations: BCE, Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN), Power Financial (PWF), Rogers (RCI.B), Sunlife (SLF), Telus (T), & TransCanada (TRP).  Stay cautious and be open to buying on dips. Good luck and good hunting, Warren.

A Difficult Week Ahead?

6 of 9 Growth & Income Stocks recommended last blog (April 11) increased in price. Only 1 of 4 Long Term Buy & Hold picks increased. At some point, all stocks were well above their Friday closing price. With the markets displaying some short term disarray, I’ll not make any major short term picks for just the week ahead. Big winners were RY +3.54% & TD +2.68%. Big losers were AGU -8.18%, POT -5.67% & TLM -5.42%. Portfolio decrease -0.35% while TSX -0.76%.

My purchases this past week on dips included: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) @ $76.66 & $76.68 (closed @ $77.06), Encana (ECA) @ $31.80 & $31.81 (closed $31.47), Athabaska Oil Sand (ATH) @ $14.41 ($13.85), Bank of Montreal (BMO) @ $61.31 ($63.83), Royal (RY) @ $58.97 ($61.37), Toronto Dominion (TD) @ $74.47 ($76.13), & Potash (POT) @ $115.78 ($109.05). The Major Banks did very nicely and I’d wait for a little pullback before repurchasing.

Growth Stock Recommendations going forward include: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Encana (ECA), Talisman (TLM) & Teck Cominco (TCK.B).

Watch List includes (Wait for Presumed Pullbacks !) Agrium (AGU), Agnico Eagle (AEM), Barrick (ABX), Potash (POT), Suncor (SU) & Athabaska (ATH).

Income Recommendations include: Bell Alliant (BA.UN), BCE, Brookfield Properties (BPO), Cineplex galaxy (CGX.UN), Crescent Point Energy (CPG), Riocan (REI.UN), Telus (T), Transcanada (TRP). Newly Added: Husky (HSE), Power Financial (PWF), Sunlife (SLF) & TSX (X). Be conservative, Warren.

Beating the TSX Composite

While only 9 of 19 Stocks recommended last blog (April 4) increased in price the week over week, the average gain of 0.73% beat the TSX Composite gain of 0.21%. The 5 additional stocks recommended 2 weeks ago all increased in price. 5 of the 24 Stocks hit new 52 Week Highs including: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Crescent Point Energy (CPG), Cineplex Galaxy Income (CGX.UN), Teck Cominco (TCK.B), and TransCanada Corp (TRP).

Big Gainers included: Agnico Eagle (AEM) +5.68%, Barrick Gold (ABX) +4.48%, Crescent Point Energy (CPG) +3.11%, Goldcorp (G) +3.22%, Kinross (K) +5.24%, & Suncor (SU) +3.32%. All 4 Financial and 2 Agriculture recommendations suffered losses over the week.

Top Recommendations for the Week Ahead include: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), National Bank (NA), Potash (POT) and TD Bank. These are short (to long term) recommendations. I might wait for a small pullback but also watch Mining and Precious Metal Stocks including all those mentioned above.

Longer Term (Buy & Hold) Recommendations include: Agrium (AGU), Encana (ECA), Royal Bank (RY), Suncor (SU), & Talisman (TLM).

Longer term Income Recommendations include: Bell Alliant (BA.UN) paying 11.24%, BCE @5.82%, Brookfield Properties (BPO) @3.58%, Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN) @6.15%, Riocan (REI.UN) @7.50%, and Telus (T) @5.03%. Looks like the market is still trending higher. Have a great week ahead, Warren

 

 

Big Gains Past

 

17 of the 22 Stocks Recommended Last Blog (March 28) increased in value. Average gain for both growth and income stocks was 1.98%. Including declared dividends the average was 2.15%. Meanwhile the TSX gained 1.62%.

Notable Big Winners included: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) + 8.83%, Cenovus Energy (CVE) + 11.99%, Encana (ECA) + 5.40%, Talisman (TLM) +5.99%,

& Barrick Gold (ABX) + 3.36%. In the income group, Manitoba Tel (MBT) increased 3.71% while Cineplex Galaxy Units (CGX.UN) increased 2.71% and hit a new 52 week high. Notable Loser included Potash (POT) which lost 4.38%.

Recently mentioned (2 blogs ago) Notables included: Suncor (SU) + 11.25% & Teck Cominco (TCK.B) + 9.58%. Recent blogs also highlighted Nexen (NXY) +7.52% & Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS.UN) + 11.93%.

Recommendations Going Forward are tougher to predict short term, owing to recent strong run ups of perennial favourite resource stocks. Will CNQ and TCK.B pull back for opportunities to get back in, drift lower or continue the strong price momentum forward ?  Same can be asked of NXY & SU. Overall and owing to previous weeks’ past weaknesses, I still like Encana (ECA), Talisman (TLM), Agnico Eagle (AEM), Barrick (ABX), Kinross (K), Agrium (AGU) & Potash (POT). After the particularly poor showing this past week, Potash looks ready for some short term movement forward. In the financial sector, I still like Royal Bank (RY), Sunlife (SLF), TD & TSX Group (X). For income, both BCE & Crescent Point Energy (CPG) continue to look strong going forward. Also Bell Alliant Units (BA.UN) making 11.4% payouts & Riocan (REI.UN) which will not convert back to a corporation in 2011, paying 7.42% look well suited for Tax Free Savings Accounts. Keep a close watch on this past week’s big movers for their direction forward. Could be more big wins or losses (opportunities). Good luck in the week ahead. Happy holidays to all my readers. Nice to have you aboard. Regards, Warren    

Canadian Large Cap Stock Oppotunities

Two Consecutive Negative Weeks on the TSX offers up some opportunities. Resource plays have declined with the big Banks also closing off their highs. Some Trades I made this Past Week include:  Purchased CNQ @ $72.36, $72.25, $72.14 & $72.10. With previous purchases my new average cost is $72.96. It closed the week @ $71.89. I also purchased TLM @ $17.16 reducing my overall cost to $17.54. It closed the week at $16.87. I also sold BNS @ $51.84 which was purchased at $49.49. It closed the week @ $51.05.

Recommendations for the Week Ahead include:

• Energy Sector: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) $71.89, Encana (ECA) $30.35, Cenovus (CVE) $25.11, Talisman (TLM) $16.87.
• Mining Sector: Agnico Eagle (AEM) $57.09, Barrick (ABX) $38.42, Goldcorp (G) $38.08, Kinross (K) $17.47, Agrium (AGU) $72.23, & Potash (POT) $124.06.
• Financial Sector: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) $51.05, CIBM (CM) $74.93, National (NA) $61.92, Royal (RY) $59.82, Toronto Dominion (TD) $76.00, Sunlife (SLF) $32.95, & TSX Group (X) $29.56.

Longer Term Recommendations for Income include: BCE $30.16, Manitoba Tel (MBT) $31.50, Cineplex Galaxy Units (CGX.UN) $19.44, Crescent Point Energy (CPG) $38.88, & TransCanada Corp (TRP) $37.18. Some nice opportunities have opened up.

Wishing you a great week ahead, Warren. 

Canadian Large Cap Stock Opportunities Ahead

Only 10 of the 19 Common Stocks Highlighted for Growth Last Week (March 14) increased in price week over week. However, all but one (Encana – ECA) were above closing price at some point. Also 8 out of these 19 Stocks hit new 52 week highs including: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), CIBC (CM), Royal Bank (RY), Toronto Dominion (TD), Power Financial (PWF), Agrium (AGU) & TransCanada Corp (TRP).

Top Recommendations based upon Price Weakness include: Encana (ECA) down 8.27% this past week to close at $31.37 (I purchased some for average cost of $32.17) and Talisman (TLM) down 7.32% to close at $17.48 (I sold my position last week @ $19.34 and repurchased some yesterday @ $17.72). Other recommendations based upon general price weakness include: Agnico Eagle (AEM) $58.50, Cenovus (CVE) $25.36 & Suncor (SU) $31.28.

Ongoing Recommendations include: Agrium (AGU) $71.72, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) $73.23 & National Bank (NA) $63.12.

Income Recommendations include: BCE $30.37 paying 5.73% dividend, Manitoba Tel (MBT) $31.60 paying 8.23% & Cineplex Galaxy Income (CGX.UN) $19.44 paying 6.48%. Keep an eye on the major banks and for any pullbacks. Others on watch list include Potash (POT), Teck (TCK.B) & Sunlife (SLF).

My trades this past week include: Sold RY @ $59.36 (cost $57.71). Sold CNQ @ $74.68 (cost $73.32) & repurchased @ $73.32. Good hunting, Warren. 

Canadian Large Cap Stock Picks for the Week Ahead

Only 12 of the 25 Common Stocks Recommended Last Week (March 7) increased in price week over week. However, all 25 were over their closing price at some point during the week. 9 of the 25 Stocks hit new 52 week highs including: Royal Bank (RY), Toronto Dominion (TD) , Power Financial (PWF), Bell Canada (BCE), Telus (T), Teck Cominco (TCK.B) plus 3 new picks: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), CIBC (CM) & Agrium (AGU).

Top Immediate Picks for the Week Ahead (based on price weakness over the past week) include: Encana (ECA) & National Bank (NA).

Ongoing Top Picks include: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) & Royal Bank (RY).

Recommendations for Longer Term Accumulation include: Suncor (SU), Talisman (TLM), CIBC (CM), Telus (T), & Crescent Point Energy (CPG) which also pays more than 7% in a monthly distributed dividend.

Recommendations for Longer Term Accumulation based upon Potential Price Weakness (buy on dips)include: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Toronto Dominion (TD), Agrium (AGU), Potash (POT), Teck Cominco (TCK.B), Power Financial (PWF), Sunlife (SLF), TSX Group (X), & Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP).

New Opportunities for Income include: Brookfield Properties (BPO) converting to an income trust, H&R (HR.UN) & Riocan (REI.UN), Cineplex Galaxy (CGX.UN) and Shaw Communications (SJR.B). I purchased all of these including TRP for a family member’s RSP this past week. I also purchased RY in my margin, RSP and wife’s RSP accounts this past week. Keep an eye on the top 5 picks in particular. Good luck in the week ahead, Warren.

Candian Large Cap Stock Recommendations for Spring 2010

 

19 of the 21 Common Stocks Recommended Last Week (Feb. 28) have increased in price. Top Energy Pick Suncor (SU) increased 4.83%, along with the 4 Major Banks included as Top Picks; National (NA) up 3.8%, Royal (RY) + 2.08%, TD + 4.10%, and newly added CIBC (CM) + 5.41%.

Precious Metal & Mining Stocks including Agnico (AEM), Goldcorp (G), Kinross (K), Teck Cominco (TCK.B) all increased between 3.24% - 4.57%. Newly added Barrick Gold (ABX) increased 4.79%.

High Yielding Dividend Stocks including Bell (BCE) + 4.04%, Power Financial (PWF) + 3.77% and newly added Telus (T) + 3.77%.  

4 Stocks reached fresh 52 Week Highs including CM, TD, BCE & PWF. 12 of the 21 Stock Recommendations will be declaring dividends in March.

Momentum Recommendations include ongoing picks Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Encana (ECA), Suncor (SU), BCE, and all the major banks listed above plus Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS).

Balance of the Recommendations include all the other stocks listed last week. Names not mentioned above include Nexen (NXY), Talisman (TLM), Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS.UN), Cenovus Energy (DVE), Crescent Point Energy (CPG). New Additions include Agrium (AGU) & Potash (POT) both showing strong price action of late.

New Issue for income worth noting is Brookfield Asset Management’s 5.20% September 8, 2016 unsecured senior bond.

Try to purchase any of the above stocks on price dips if possible. CNQ & RY might have nice entry points for quick profits. Good luck, Warren